The Senate Republican campaign arm sent a memo to donors touting Rep. Ashley Hinson’s potential strength in the Iowa Senate race, while stopping short of fully endorsing her to replace outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst.
Senate Democrats have been looking for ways to expand their difficult 2026 map to take back the majority, eyeing red states like Iowa and Alaska as potential places to do so.
Republicans remain confident Iowa will stay in GOP hands and indicated that Hinson would be a “formidable contender.” Hinson launched her campaign earlier this week shortly after Ernst announced she would be retiring.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee told donors Wednesday they consider Hinson someone who would be “exceedingly difficult for any Democrat to challenge.”
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“Iowa remains a Republican stronghold, confirmed most recently by President Trump’s commanding electoral victories. Despite Senator Ernst’s retirement, Democrats have no path forward in Iowa’s reshaped electorate. We are confident a pro-Trump, proven conservative will be elected to continue fighting for the Hawkeye State’s values in 2026 and keep this Senate seat ruby red,” the memo reads.
The memo says that “Democrats have been shut out of Iowa’s federal delegation and face an electorate that now forms a cornerstone of the GOP’s Midwestern base.”
Additionally, the memo expands on how Republicans have grown their ranks in Iowa and argues the math is in their favor.
“Since 2016, GOP voter registration has surged to 38.6%,” the memo says. “Meanwhile, today just 28.6% of Iowa voters are Democrats, following years of party realignment with their far Left base, alienating working and middle class voters, and abandoning farmers and manufacturers in the state.”
Because of this, the NRSC expressed confidence that whoever comes out of the primary will be able to beat the Democratic nominee.
“Whatever Democrat emerges from their bruising primary will be no match for our nominee,” the memo says.
Hinson is, by and large, the favorite to come out of a Republican primary, having already secured extensive endorsements from members of House and Senate leadership. Senate leadership has been in discussions with Hinson since the spring in preparation for a Ernst retirement, according to a source familiar with the conversations.
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