Senate Republicans’ troubles on affordability went from bad to worse after the Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates last week, a move that will likely increase prices on a number of fronts.
The party has been on the back foot heading into the midterms due to a steady stream of negative economic news recently, the chief one being gas prices that sit close to $4.50 per gallon on average — nearly the high point since the Iran war erupted in February. Diesel prices are also hitting an all-time high. And mortgage rates are also close to eclipsing 7% once again.
The Fed’s action boosted interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that lawmakers hope quells inflation, which has been north of 3% ever since the war broke out.
But it’s the latest factor leaving Republicans at a loss as to how they should handle the issue before the November midterms.
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“It’s really clumsy. I’m glad I’m not on the ballot, I know that. It’s hard to convince people the economy’s doing great when theirs isn’t,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) told The Washington Sun.
While the Fed’s move was telegraphed ahead of time, the development is expected to affect borrowers’ concerning mortgage rates, car loans and credit card interest, dealing a blow to the majority party and exacerbating members’ issues over the next six weeks.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who lost his primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in May, conceded that a positive Republican economic message is not easy to come by.
“I think I’d talk about different things,” Cornyn said, adding that the interest rate increase is “bad timing” for the party.
Multiple Senate Republicans noted to The Sun that they got an earful from constituents about prices over the recent summer recess, especially at the pump.
“Unless you’re an oil man in western North Dakota, you’re not really keen on high oil prices,” Cramer said.
Democrats need to flip four seats to retake the majority from Republicans, who have found themselves having to compete in contests in traditionally red states like Kansas, Alaska and Ohio because of growing dissatisfaction over rising costs.
Ever since last summer, Republican leaders have been urging members to push their economic message, headlined by what they consider popular portions of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. That includes making many of the 2018 tax cuts permanent, as well as no taxes on tips and overtime for some.
The U.S. war against Iran has changed that though, with consumers more focused on the immediate strain they are feeling in household budgets.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) noted that it is hard to find gas lower than $5 per gallon around Anchorage, with the far-flung parts of her state paying far more. She recalled a recent conversation she had with a friend in Dillingham, a commercial fishing town along Bristol Bay, who said they are paying $12.99 per gallon to fill tanks in their boats.
“And it went down. It was $13.99,” she said.
Another factor hurting Republicans is Trump’s decision to pause tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of imported beef in the face of sky-high prices.
Ag-state members made their feelings known, saying that it is a mistake as it will hurt the bottom lines of ranchers, a key constituency, who have already been struggling.
When asked what he’s heard from voters back home, Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota), who is up for reelection, said that slashing the beef import tariff was, in their minds, like being “hurt by a relative.”
“It’s like a relative punched them in the gut,” Rounds told The Sun.
Making matters worse, there’s nothing the Senate can do before members leave later this month until after the election that will make an impact. The chamber is currently working to pass a bill to overhaul college sports after Senate Majority Leader John Thune promised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that he would take it up after the Clarity Act.
Some in the party wish they were doing more to combat voters’ economic concerns. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a key incumbent up for reelection in November, namechecked permitting reform as one item, among others, where “we would demonstrate that we understand the concerns of American families.”
Lawmakers in both parties have been pushing to strike a deal to streamline rules on new infrastructure and energy projects, but that’s hardly considered a sure thing. The House is also out until after the midterms, meaning that the earliest anything could pass both chambers is November.
Murkowski also argued that permitting reform was the one realistic thing that would help both on the costs front and politically.
“It would help [Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska)]. It would help everyone who is up. It would help everyone who is not up,” Murkowski told reporters, adding that gas prices in her state are unsustainable.
“People are feeling it, and they don’t like it. They don’t like it at all,” Murkowski continued. “And what kind of response are we seeing out of the White House? Is there a recognition that there’s a connection here? If there is, I’m not hearing anybody enunciate it.”
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