David Crowley’s campaign rose from the dead and saved the Democratic establishment in Wisconsin — defeating democratic socialist Francesca Hong for the Democratic nomination in the state’s gubernatorial race.
In a dramatic, nail-biting finish, Crowley pulled off a massive upset in the swing state, where he mounted a three-week comeback to overtake Hong, whose leftist and politically fringe comments haunted her closing sprint. Crowley, who exited the multicandidate primary in early July and jumped back in a week later, was propelled by an endorsement from Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Crowley will now face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany in November.
“Now, David is focused on bringing people together, earning the support of Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and anyone who believes Wisconsin is at its best when we work together and deliver results,” said Garren Randolph, Crowley’s campaign manager, in a statement.
The Associated Press called the race for Crowley shortly after 3:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
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“I think primary voters freaked out about her electability, saying and doing weird stuff, and late deciders broke for him,” said Adam Carlson, a Democratic pollster. “Anxious voters who don’t want Tom Tiffany, an election-denier, and Wisconsin voters are well-trained, perennial swing state voters. Stakes are too high.”
Crowley’s victory cuts against recent progressive gains in New York City, Denver and Michigan — and raises serious questions over primary polling ahead of the 2028 presidential primary.
“The Democratic Party is going to have to grapple with how broken primary polls are ahead of 2028,” said Amanda Litman, co-founder of the progressive Run For Something, which endorsed Hong in her state legislative races. “Historically they’ve been part of the calculation for things like debate thresholds — that no longer makes sense, if it ever did.”
In Wisconsin, Crowley styled himself as the more electable candidate compared to Hong, whose leftist views and woke-era social media posts made Democrats in the state uneasy about her chances of beating Tiffany in November. The Republican Governors Association dropped more than $3 million on ads boosting Hong, an effort Crowley frequently highlighted on the campaign trail as evidence that Hong was the weaker general election candidate.
Hong led the polls in the final weeks of what had been a chaotic and crowded primary. Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, exited the race in early July because his campaign wasn’t gaining traction. He reentered with Evers’ support after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez dropped out following reporting inaccuracies in her campaign finance reports. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, another candidate, dropped out soon after, shortly before the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that it was looking into allegations of sexual impropriety.
A private Aug. 5 memo, circulated by the Crowley campaign and obtained by NOTUS, argued that the primary electorate would ultimately mirror a traditional Wisconsin primary electorate and be “far older than the electorate being polled.” That path for Crowley ultimately bore out Tuesday, along with a surge of late deciders who ultimately sided with Crowley, several Wisconsin Democrats said.
“I am so proud of David — he’s the future of our Party, and I can’t wait for him to be our next governor,” Evers said in a social media post. “For now, we polka. Tomorrow, we’re back at work to win.”
The large group of voters who were undecided late in the campaign appeared to break for Crowley, showing his stronger name ID and get-out-the-vote operation, said Brandon Scholz, an independent strategist in Wisconsin.
“Everybody chose to ignore the 20 percent undecided voters,” said a Wisconsin Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “We never saw a youth surge that was reshaping the electorate.”
Late Tuesday, before the race was decided, Hong told her supporters that “in 11 weeks, no matter who is on this ballot, y’all, we are going to fight to win together.”
Hong’s loss does come with vindication for at least some progressives. National progressive stars who had rushed into other Democratic primaries sat out the Wisconsin race. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York) didn’t endorse Hong, staying conspicuously absent from the primary just a week after helping push Abdul El-Sayed over the line in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary.
Skepticism of primary polls grew last week after El-Sayed only narrowly beat Rep. Haley Stevens, despite polls for weeks showing him up substantially.
Crowley now faces a potentially challenging contest against Tiffany in a battleground state that President Donald Trump narrowly won in 2024. But Tiffany will have to reckon with Trump’s unpopularity and his own denial of the 2020 election results.
Wisconsin Republicans are left privately grappling with the reality they didn’t get their preferred Democratic candidate. One Wisconsin Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, acknowledged that “the entire Republican playbook was based on the certainty of running against a socialist deeply out of touch with any corner of Wisconsin that isn’t Dane County.”
“Whoops,” they added.
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Editor’s note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.
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