Mandela Barnes shouldn’t expect the Democratic primary field to clear for him in the Wisconsin governor’s race like it did when he ran for Senate, close watchers of the election say.
One reason why? Some anxious Democrats are worried about Barnes’ loss in the Senate race in 2022.
Barnes, the former lieutenant governor, lost to Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022 by just one percentage point. On the same ballot, Gov. Tony Evers won reelection by more than 3 percentage points. There’s still angst and unease for not capturing that Senate win, close watchers say.
“There might not be any issue that divides Democrats more” than Barnes’ electability, said Barry Burden, who runs the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
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The crowded primary field includes Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Rep. Francesca Hong, current Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and state Sen. Kelda Roys. Earlier this month, Evers’ former aide, Joel Brennan, jumped into the race too.
Whoever wins is likely to face Rep. Tom Tiffany, the leading Republican candidate, who has routinely targeted Barnes on social media.
Barnes has the highest name recognition among the primary candidates and is widely considered to be the front-runner. An October poll released prior to Barnes’ campaign announcement placed him at 16% support in the primary, the highest of any candidate included in the survey.
“Mandela Barnes is the most known and by far the most popular candidate,” said Molly Murphy, a pollster for Barnes’ campaign, adding that he has a “decisive lead over everyone else in the field.”
Even so, Democrats in the state say this isn’t a done deal.
“I don’t think anybody, including Mandela, is that prohibitive a favorite the way that Evers was at the top of the field and Mandela was at the top of the field in those two primaries over the last eight years,” said Sachin Chheda, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist who is not affiliated with any candidate. It’s a “wide open field.”
Barnes ran away with the primary in 2022, winning nearly 78% of the vote; his most competitive challenger, Milwaukee Bucks Executive Alex Lasry, dropped out of the race ahead of the primary and endorsed him. Barnes’ general election campaign, however, was inundated with attacks from the right that proved successful.
Barnes’ campaign staff blamed the 2022 results in part on insufficient support from national Democrats to match outside spending by Republicans on attack ads — though some, like Burden, question whether money would have “made a difference.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee donated $51,200 to his campaign in 2022 — the same amount they gave to nine other Senate candidates, per Open Secrets.
The national campaign arm for Democratic governors has pledged to stay out of the primary contest.
The Democratic Governors Association is “excited about this strong bench of candidates and look forward to helping elect whoever Wisconsinites nominate to be their next governor,” said spokesperson Olivia Davis.
Barnes does have connections with major figures in the national party, though. Since 2023, Barnes has led a voting rights organization, Power to the Polls, and a renewable energy nonprofit.
“People wrote me off from the very beginning, people wrote me off in the primary in that race. And we defied expectations, and I would not have been able to defy those expectations if it were not for the groundswell of support that I had going into it,” Barnes told another local outlet this month.
Murphy, the president of Impact Research, said that governor’s races are “a different ecosystem” from Senate campaigns. “No two cycles are the same; 2022 was very much a referendum on national leadership,” she said.
For now, name recognition and previous fundraising experience make Barnes the front-runner, said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist based in Wisconsin. Still, Zepecki said, there are more incentives for the other candidates to stay in the race this time.
“I don’t think anybody anticipates a rerun of ’22 where other Democrats just kind of get out of the way a couple of weeks before the primary,” he said.
Another reason he expects the field to stay mostly intact? Because Democrats have a good shot at securing a trifecta in Wisconsin in 2026, and the chance to be governor while the party holds control is more appealing than being one of 100 senators.
There’s also the hand-wringing over electability.
“My reaction and the reaction of some other people I know who were quite involved in politics was, ‘Oh man, I hope he decides not to [run],’” said Mary Arnold, co-chair of the Columbia County Democrats, which covers the communities between Madison and Wisconsin Dells. “He’s going to overshadow the field, and I don’t know if that’s going to be a good thing.”
Though that concern may be isolated to political insiders, Zepecki said.
“Then there’s real people. …The further I go out from my circle of political friends, the more enthusiasm for Barnes I hear,” he said.
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