Political Operatives Warn Campaigns: Don’t Trust Prediction Markets

Prediction market companies are trying to get their foot in the door as traditional polling falters.

Kalshi app on a phone

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction platforms where people can trade event contracts, futures and derivatives on real-world events, are leaning into the political realm — both even have dedicated midterms betting hubs. (Erin Hooley/AP Photo)

The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch.

Two venture-backed prediction market companies are offering nothing short of magic to meet those needs: real-time odds on who will win elections, and even projections of how much they will win by. As these companies lean into aggressively gamifying — or rather, gamblifying — U.S. politics, political operatives are warning campaigns not to take them seriously.

“The thing we have to remember is they’re not in any way representative of the voters that decide elections,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist. “It is sort of like degenerate gambling for political hacks.”