The slow decline of traditional polling has left politicos, who are always desperate for numbers, in a lurch.
Two venture-backed prediction market companies are offering nothing short of magic to meet those needs: real-time odds on who will win elections, and even projections of how much they will win by. As these companies lean into aggressively gamifying — or rather, gamblifying — U.S. politics, political operatives are warning campaigns not to take them seriously.
“The thing we have to remember is they’re not in any way representative of the voters that decide elections,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist. “It is sort of like degenerate gambling for political hacks.”