Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes’ Ohio seat is a top target for Republicans this cycle. But with a healthy bankroll, a slight redistricting advantage and no clear Republican frontrunner, her campaign is feeling optimistic.
For her reelection bid in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District, Sykes raised $471,000 in the fourth quarter and has $1.1 million in cash on hand, according to figures shared with NOTUS. She’s raised $1.6 million so far in the cycle, with donations averaging around $21.
“Folks are paying attention, and they want to send her back,” said a strategist for the Sykes campaign who requested anonymity to discuss campaign strategy.
The campaign expects to need over $5 million to win based on previous election cycles. Various Democratic groups spent over $7 million against then Republican nominee Kevin Coughlin in 2024, while Republican groups spent over $6 million against Sykes.
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The strategist told NOTUS the campaign has focused on reaching voters who have felt left behind by the Democratic Party in recent years, and building up a grassroots campaign through knocking on doors.
“If you are intentional about talking to those voters, it shows up in how you’re building a program. So are you knocking on doors? Are you doing voter registration?” the strategist said. “It’s hard to build, the reality is that you gotta figure out how to pay for a lot of this stuff.”
The Sykes strategist said the campaign wants to focus on specific issues rather than simply presenting themselves as the alternative to the Republican Party. It’s a strategy underway across Ohio to rebuild a party that has struggled in the state since President Donald Trump’s first of three victories in the state in 2016.
“We’ve gotten away from just having those conversations: What issues do you care about?” the strategist said. “There’s definitely a disconnect writ large with Democrats that folks feel like they don’t get us.”
The 13th Congressional District was redrawn last year to favor Democrats slightly more after state Democrats took a deal in the state’s redistricting commission at the last minute to avoid a map drawn exclusively by the Republican majority statehouse. Before the redraw, former Vice President Kamala Harris won by only 0.1 points in 2024, while Republican Gov. Mike DeWine won the district by 11 points in 2022.
After the redistricting last year, Coughlin dropped out of the race to unseat Sykes, saying he did “not see a path to victory.”
Republicans still have Ohio’s 13th on the shortlist to flip. The National Republican Congressional Committee has indicated it’s willing to put substantial resources into the race, saying the largely working-class district has voters primed to leave the Democratic Party.
“In OH-13 alone this cycle, the GOP has outspent Democrats by more than two to one, underscoring the committee’s commitment to winning even in districts Democrats once considered safe. Emilia Sykes remains one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country,” a NRCC document outlining Republican paths to victory says.
“Socialist Squad Member Emilia Sykes raced to the far Left embracing every liberal lunatic and out of touch Democrat policy. Sykes continues to prove she is too extreme for Ohio,” NRCC Spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement.
The Republican primary has no clear frontrunner, with at least four candidates running and one independent in the mix as well. The Republican candidates include Margaret Briem, an Army veteran, business owner and Moms for Liberty county chair; Carey Coleman, a conservative radio commentator and weatherman; businessman Neil Patel; and Leetonia Mayor Kevin Siembida.
This has given Sykes’ campaign and Democratic strategists optimism that the Republican nominee will leave the primary bruised and in need of money to put up a strong fight in the general election.
“While her Republican opponents run in a messy, chaotic primary and spend their time fighting with each other, voters are watching Rep. Sykes work to lower costs, protect their health care, and bring good-paying jobs and opportunity back to Northeast Ohio. It’s clear Ohioans are on her side – and she has the grassroots support behind her to prove it,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Riya Vashi said in a statement.
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