Republicans are pouring in tens of millions of dollars to shore up the Senate campaign of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has faced major struggles in his race against Democrat James Talarico. But Democrats are divided on whether to direct valuable resources to what’s been a solidly red state.
Some Democrats want their party to commit more money to aid Talarico on the expensive Texas airwaves. Republicans are outpacing Democrats in the spending race by more than $70 million this month, with Election Day fast approaching.
“I think we need to make sure that Talarico’s campaign gets the help it needs,” Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen told The Washington Sun this week.
A super PAC linked with Senate Republican leadership has spent more than $60 million in ads that will run this month, including a stunning drop of $54 million in a single day this week. President Donald Trump’s super PAC threw in another $10 million, while Elon Musk’s PAC is spending nearly $2 million for Paxton. There’s likely even more to come.
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“I actually think Texas is worth investing in,” California Sen. Alex Padilla told The Sun.
Recent polls show a tight race in Texas, including an AARP poll where Talarico led Paxton 48% to 44% among likely Texas voters. A Siena Research/ReconMR poll released Thursday found Talarico with a slightly larger lead, 49% to Paxton’s 43%.
The flood of Republican cash is part of a larger effort by the party to save its congressional majorities in November. After some doubts about whether Trump’s political operation would open its wallet, and even with pleading by top GOP leaders, it has now reserved over $130 million to boost Republican candidates across several battleground states.
Talarico isn’t totally outgunned in the money race, however. His fundraising has set records in Texas this year, and he ended June with $21.5 million in the bank compared to Paxton’s $1.8 million. The disparity on the candidate side will likely only grow at the end of the third fundraising quarter next month.
But national Democrats haven’t committed significant resources in the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a $40 million spend across 10 different Senate battleground states, including Texas, in July. Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic leadership aligned PAC, has not reported direct major spending investments in the race.
“Paxton is a weak, unimpressive candidate, and national Republicans coming in with millions to bail out his campaign only proves it,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC. “This is not a sign of strength for Trump or [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune, it’s a confirmation that nominating a scandal-plagued liability is indeed a liability. We are closely watching the state to ensure victory here.”
Senate Democrats believe they have the best chance of turning Texas blue in decades given Paxton’s ethical baggage, Trump’s low approval ratings and the sour political environment for Republicans this year. But they’re divided on how much to spend in a red state that has dashed their hopes before. And they know they’ll ultimately be outspent by well-funded Republican groups.
“Let me just say this about the money: They have the money, we have the people. I’ll take the people any day,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The Sun, touting the quality of Democratic Senate candidates in Texas and elsewhere in the country.
Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy said his party should “obviously” commit more resources in Texas, but he argued that Democratic candidates ought to use the Republican spending as an issue to campaign against money in politics.
“We’re not going to have as much money as they are. So the question is, how do we talk about the money with the limited resources we have?” Murphy said.
“Money is important, but it’s not everything,” added Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith. “More money does not equal more votes, and what I think is happening around the country is people are fed up and kind of ignoring all of these TV ads.”
Another problem for Democrats is that resources are limited, and money is needed for candidates in other competitive battlegrounds. In Michigan, for example, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin asked their colleagues this week to help Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed with financial support. El-Sayed met with Democratic senators in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, after which the main Democratic Senate PAC committed an additional $10 million for Michigan.
In New Hampshire, top Democrats are ringing alarms about the campaign of Rep. Chris Pappas, who has lagged in some polls to Republican nominee and former GOP Sen. John Sununu.
Democrats are also eyeing pickup opportunities in other red-leaning states like Alaska, Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, where Republicans are dropping large sums of money.
Republicans have their own money problems. Every dollar that they spend defending a seat in Texas is a dollar that isn’t going elsewhere, including trying to unseat vulnerable Democrats like Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia.
“At some point, I think you know, given scarce resources, they’re going to have to figure out where the money is going to do the most good, and it may or may not be a place like as big and as expensive as Texas,” Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn told The Sun this week.
Cornyn warned earlier this year that nominating Paxton would require Republicans to spend huge sums of money, and they could potentially lose his seat anyway, but Trump ignored him. The president endorsed Paxton, ousting the incumbent senator in a primary runoff.
Talarico has made fighting corporate and dark money in elections a core pillar of his Senate campaign. On the campaign trail, he frequently criticizes wealthy megadonors and billionaires for buying political influence. He dubbed last week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump raised money for Paxton, as a “Billionaire Ball” that ignored voters’ economic hardships.
Although national Republicans are spending large sums of money to bail out Paxton in Texas, they won’t get the same bang for their buck as Talarico’s campaign. Super PAC ads don’t receive TV discount rates that candidate ads do, per federal law, and are therefore much more expensive.
“Money does not change the fundamentals of the race,” said Luke Warford, the chair of the Democratic Party in Travis County, Texas, and the founder of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, which raises money and provides structural support for Democratic candidates. “Super PAC money doesn’t go as far in terms of what you can buy on TV. It’s not as easy as just dropping a bunch of money.”
“Of course the Republican money is a challenge, but it also feeds into the narrative that Democrats are running against billionaires buying elections,” he added. “The money doesn’t come really without heavy baggage.”
Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said that ultimately, voters would make a judgment on the economy and high prices under Trump more so than any ads on television.
“Each of our candidates needs enough money to be able to respond [to Republican attacks],” she said. “But the real heart of this race is out there in plain view, without spending a nickel. Donald Trump’s economy is not working for the American people, but Donald Trump’s corruption is definitely working for Donald Trump.”
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