In a new memo to donors pointing to four favorable indicators for the GOP, the National Republican Senatorial Committee claimed there’s a “statistical tie” between GOP nominee Tim Sheehy and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in the Montana Senate race.
The memo, sent to donors by NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman and obtained by NOTUS, says that both candidates are polling at 46% in one of the most competitive seats on the map this cycle. (There hasn’t been a public poll in the race since Sheehy won the GOP nomination on June 4, and the last poll was from March.)
The memo also touts the turnout in the primary elections, with Republicans voting in significantly larger numbers than Republicans.
“Historically, while it is not unusual for Republicans to have higher turnout, the scale of this gap is unprecedented,” the memo reads. “Importantly, 64% of primary voters opted for a Republican ballot, marking the highest level of GOP versus Democrat participation in Montana’s history. This heightened engagement within the GOP base signals potential momentum for Sheehy.”
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According to the memo, nearly 60% of the undecided voters identify as Republicans, while 11% identify as Democrats. But an overwhelming 83% of voters in Montana have an unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden, according to the NRSC memo.
Additionally, 90% of undecided voters are “unfamiliar” with Sheehy, the memo says, something the NRSC believes will benefit Sheehy as he begins to define himself with voters.
“These factors collectively suggest that undecided voters are more likely to break towards Sheehy as the campaign progresses with sufficient marketing dollars targeted to this key universe,” the memo says.
The memo concludes by emphasizing that, moving forward, it is “critical to maintain a robust and targeted campaign to ensure that Tim Sheehy’s message resonates with voters across Montana.”
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Reese Gorman is a reporter at NOTUS.
Here’s the full memo:
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