When Democrats and Republicans talk about winning control of the House of Representatives in November, they tend to focus on battleground districts in New York and California.
But Alabama’s often overlooked 2nd Congressional District, created to give Black voters in Alabama a bigger voice, could play an outsize role in determining who wins control of the chamber as a majority could come down to just a few seats.
Democratic nominee Shomari Figures, a former Obama administration member, is facing off against Republican nominee Caroleene Dobson, a real estate attorney in the newly created district. It’s a competitive race that leans Democrat and a high-priority seat for both parties.
For Democrats, it’s a pickup opportunity they’re especially enthusiastic about. They featured Figures prominently at the Democratic National Convention in August. He’s getting a boost from national names like former Attorney General Eric Holder and Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who are expected to travel to the district to help him campaign. And he has also received the endorsement of several national groups, including the Congressional Black Caucus PAC.
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“I’d say I think it’s one of the more unexpected opportunities, at least in terms of what expectations were two years ago,” Figures told NOTUS about how the seat factors in Democrats’ broader play for the House. “We did not know that we’d have this district. We did not know we’d have this opportunity. Because of that, I think this district has elevated as a key piece of that pathway.”
The race is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list of priority seats, and Dobson is one of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Young Gun” candidates. There’s been little polling in the race, but the ones that are out there show Figures with a lead.
“Oh, hell I think it’s crucial,” said Joe Reed, chair of the Alabama Democratic Conference, about the seat. “It could be the seat that determines whether Democrats control Congress or not … and this applies to every other seat. This seat is very, very important.”
Democrats in Alabama recognize that theirs is not a state that is competitive for the presidency and that it often gets skipped over as Democrats plot out big-picture strategy given how conservative the state is. But they’re adamant that this is a seat worth their party getting excited about.
“Yes, they’re going to spend most of the time in the battleground states,” said Randy Kelley, chair of the state Democratic Party. “The popular vote don’t win the presidency. … But in Alabama, we got a shot for this seat.”
It’s not just Democrats in the state who have that take on it.
“The Alabama seats are critical to Democrats being able to take back the House,” said Dan Sena, who served as executive director of the DCCC during the 2018 election cycle. “When you look at seats that have been redrawn that lean blue, that allows Democrats to use resources in other places where the seats are more challenging to win to ultimately put up a fight to win the House.”
The DCCC cast Dobson as an “extremist” in trying to create a contrast between the two candidates.
“Shomari Figures is working hard to restore fair representation to the people of Alabama’s newly redrawn congressional district, running on a plan to make life more affordable, expand access to rural health care and protect reproductive freedom,” said Justin Chermol, a DCCC spokesperson, in a statement to NOTUS.
The Cook Political Report categorized the seat as “likely Democrat,” though both parties expect the race to be tight on Election Day. Republicans acknowledge that this is an uphill battle for Dobson.
“The Republican Party is fully engaged to try and hold this district, even though it is an area where the courts have turned this district from a strong ‘R,’ to a very much to a lean Democratic district,” said John Wahl, chair of the Alabama Republican Party.
The NRCC and the Dobson campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
This election is the first since the state was court ordered to redraw its congressional map to give Black voters more power to decide who represents them in Congress. The new district includes Macon and Bullock counties, which are historically majority Black counties. Other rural counties, some a part of the state’s Black Belt region, are now also a part of the district. The new congressional map is temporary and the district’s future is still uncertain.
Alabama’s 7th Congressional District, which has been represented by Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell since 2010, is currently the only one in Alabama represented by a Democrat.
As Democratic state Rep. Anthony Daniels put it, a Democrat winning the seat would give Sewell “someone of an ally” in Congress.
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Torrence Banks is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
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