https://www.washingtonsun.com/republicans Republicans en-US Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:16:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/congress/republicans-lame-duck-agenda-midterm-results Al Weaver, Kadia Goba “I think our appetite's definitely going to be bigger than what our stomach can hold on this one,” one senior Republican aide said. Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:16:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/congress/republicans-lame-duck-agenda-midterm-results Republican leaders are barreling towards a lame-duck period when they plan to fund the government, address the debt ceiling and push through a must-pass defense authorization bill — all while tempering the expectations of members who have their sights set on a reconciliation package many believe won’t materialize.

The party in power is staring down a lengthy must-do list and an even lengthier wish list, especially if they lose one or both chambers come Nov. 3. While the midterm results will determine the top priorities, members are already fretting about the looming issue of fitting 10 pounds into a 5-pound sack.

“I think our appetite's definitely going to be bigger than what our stomach can hold on this one,” one senior Senate Republican aide, given anonymity to speak freely, told The Washington Sun.

“It'll certainly depend to some extent what the chamber breakdowns are gonna be after January 3rd to see what kind of leverage each party has in these negotiations and maybe what's punted to the next Congress,” the aide continued.

Republicans have already passed two reconciliation bills. This summer they laid the groundwork for a third, focused primarily on defense spending. But the prospect of a divided government in 2027 has added a sense of urgency for Republicans looking to pass GOP priorities before the end of the year.

Members are socializing a long list of GOP priorities should Republicans lose the majority in the House. Among those being discussed are permitting reform, imposing new restrictions around children using social media, transportation reauthorization, renewing a surveillance program and approving more money for farmers and the Pentagon.

“We will do a reconciliation bill. One way or the other, we will,” Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno told reporters last week. “Regardless of how the election turns out, we have to do a reconciliation bill. Obviously, if we lose control of Congress, it'll be the Last Supper,”

However, there is a split in the party whether that’s even achievable.

Senate Republicans were unable to get the ball rolling on a third reconciliation bill in the months leading up to the election because they did not have the votes to start the process. House Republicans narrowly approved an outline, but the process stalled. It is unclear whether that will change once the chambers reconvene after the midterm elections.

When asked about Moreno’s confidence about a third reconciliation package, Sen. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, a member of leadership, cast doubt on that possibility.

“I’m not ready to make that prediction. That sounds like, ‘Oh! Hail Mary! We’re all going to freak out.’ I don’t see that,” Capito said about a “Last Supper” style bill if Republicans lose their majority.

Other complications in the lame-duck period are potential attendance issues from lawmakers exiting Washington and outgoing flame throwers with little to lose in their final days as sitting members.

“I don't think it's going to happen,” the senior GOP aide said about another party line bill. “I certainly get the argument for it. We could probably get our side to agree on a defense supplemental at this point, but I just don't think we have the calendar time realistically to do that now.”

As the Environment and Public Works Committee chairwoman and an appropriator, Capito says she is still hopeful that bipartisan permitting reform legislation can move in the postelection work period on top of funding bills. Funding is set to expire on Dec. 11.

“There’s plenty of work to do. If you couple that with a massive … reconciliation package, that’s a big chunk. We’ll see what happens,” Capito said. “It may be the impetus to move us in that direction. I don’t know that the elections may be [that impetus]. For right now, we still have plenty of legislative work to do without going to a reconciliation bill.”

She cautioned: “Those things take a lot of time. We didn't have the votes … for a reconciliation package earlier.”

Atop the to-do list is funding the government for fiscal 2027. There is broad support to pass as many appropriations bills as possible before the end of the year. But the expectation is that Congress will rely on a continuing resolution to fund the remaining agencies and programs until mid-March, dulling any suggestion of a year-long CR.

“I could see a shorter-term CR like that. I just don't think we'll do a year-long CR,” the aide said.

The possibility of losing one or both chambers is also expected to impact other fronts, including the debt limit.

Top Republicans have already indicated that they are open to raising the debt ceiling in a reconciliation package to take it off the table as a negotiating point for Democrats if they win one or both chambers. If it’s not handled in the lame duck, it would likely need to be raised in the first half of 2027 on a bipartisan basis.

However, multiple members are indicating the votes may not be there unless there are associated spending cuts to help pay for it.

Wyoming Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who is retiring, told Punchbowl News earlier in the month that it would be “really hard” to back another debt limit increase. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, another retiree, labeled the debt fight as a “next year thing.” And House Freedom Caucus members are already signaling pay-fors are non-negotiable. “There will be no blank check,” Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana told The Sun.

When push comes to shove though, some said they do not have a choice.

Moreno said he believed the votes would be there on the Republican side. “Nobody wants to see a debt default. That would be 1929 on steroids.”

Another item on Senate Republicans’ checklist is confirming judges.

Installing Trump’s judicial nominees has been a top priority of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley. The pressure to confirm more will only heighten if Democrats win control.

Republicans have confirmed 57 judges since Trump’s return to office, with enough nominees in the pipeline to keep the chamber churning through them through the end of the year. Adding to the urgency, Grassley is term limited as committee chair this year.

There are also a number of must-pass bills also on the docket. In addition to government funding, passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act is also top of mind. Multiple sources do not sense much consternation on that front.

Another bill leaders want to address is Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, a national security tool that expired in June, which sources believe could get attached to the NDAA. Members in both parties indicated in September that they still viewed reupping the key surveillance tool a priority, yet it has fallen through the cracks for months.

As lawmakers lobby leaders to move specific items one thing they all agree on is that the path won’t be clear until they know if they’ll still control both chambers of Congress.

Capito admits the sentiment about trying for one more package wrapping together several Republican priorities could shift. “Maybe with different results with the election, we might, but we don't have the answer to that question.”
]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/monica-de-la-cruz-latino-voter-coalition-south-texas Daniella Diaz The Republican is fighting to keep a coalition of Latino voters together as she runs against a ubiquitous opponent, Tejano star Bobby Pulido. Thu, 22 Oct 2026 09:13:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/monica-de-la-cruz-latino-voter-coalition-south-texas EDINBURG, Texas — Election Day was only 14 days away, but Rep. Monica De La Cruz wasn’t, technically, campaigning. She was touring affordable housing in her district alongside a Cabinet secretary instead.

The Republican is up for reelection against Tejano music star Bobby Pulido in a majority-Latino district where President Donald Trump made stunning gains the last time he ran. How De La Cruz navigates the next stretch could determine how both parties approach Latino voters nationally in the coming years.

She faces significant headwinds.

Voters who backed her in the past aren’t particularly loyal to either party and are frustrated by what they see as inaction and Trump’s lack of success, after voting for him enthusiastically just two years ago. Trump’s popularity with Latino voters has deteriorated, according to a Pew Research Center poll released earlier this month, which found his approval rating with the group down from 38% in February 2025 to 24% among those surveyed.

De La Cruz, however, demurred when asked if she was worried about losing the inroads Republicans have made with Latino voters in South Texas.

“This is one of the most competitive races across the nation, and what I've decided to do is to focus on my race and what I'm able to bring to the table,” she told The Washington Sun.

De La Cruz isn’t only fighting against a tough national environment for Republicans. Pulido has proven himself to be a formidable opponent running on his celebrity, with an uncanny ability to generate national headlines.

“The [Rio Grande Valley] is the bellwether, so what happens in Texas-15, what happens in the RGV, will set the narrative for investment in Latino voters in the future,” said Melissa Morales, the president of the Somos PAC, a Democratic-aligned group that invests in increasing Latino voter turnout across the country.

Is the Republican Party’s breakthrough with Latino voters a fragile coalition built around Trump’s promises of bringing prices down and improving the economy, or something more permanent?

De La Cruz’s approach suggests she’s not banking on the latter: Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner’s visit to South Texas this week to help highlight De La Cruz's work on affordable housing gave the Republican incumbent a chance to spotlight her record.

The event also put her front and center on an issue that resonates with Latino voters: housing affordability, a major concern according to a Pew study.

“I am so proud to have the secretary here because what it shows is our commitment to affordable housing and families, right here in the Rio Grande Valley, being able to achieve their American dream, which is owning their first home,” De La Cruz told reporters after the tour of homes.

The district has since been redrawn in an effort to help Republicans pick up seats, but in 2024, Trump carried Texas' 15th Congressional District by nearly 18 percentage points, while De La Cruz won a second term in Congress. For how much the president is hanging over the race, De La Cruz was studious about not bringing him up.

She did not mention Trump during her official office stops on Tuesday and has pitched herself to voters as someone who would fight against his administration’s immigration policy.

She put out an ad last month featuring the story of a DACA recipient who was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The ad suggested that De La Cruz helped release the man from detention.

“I have been direct with leadership from Day 1,” she told The Sun. “I have told leadership that enforcement must focus on the cartels and the criminals, not hardworking families that are trying to navigate the very complex immigration system that we have.”

She’s not only focused on policy issues. She has also made a case against Pulido by accusing him of protecting a former bandmate, Frankie Caballero, a registered sex offender who was convicted of indecent sexual contact with a child. Pulido has repeatedly denied knowing about the conviction.

Pulido, in turn, has accused De La Cruz of bending to the Trump administration and not fighting for South Texans. He has framed the administration as being too tough on migrants and responsible for the increased cost of living.

But he’s also holding the Democratic Party at arm’s length, pitching himself as someone who would fight for South Texans over the party.

“We don't care about parties down here. We don't,” Pulido told The Sun in an interview before a concert-turned-campaign rally on Saturday. “People care more about the candidate than they do about a party platform, and I think that's where the rest of the country is. That's kind of where we've always been.”

The arena for his farewell concert on Saturday was packed: Thousands of fans in cowboy boots and hats streamed into Bert Ogden Arena in Edinburg, holding micheladas, margaritas, nachos dripping with melted cheese and boxes of popcorn.

They came to hear Pulido perform his signature hit, “Desvelado,” one last time, but also for his pitch on why he should be the next representative of Texas’s 15th Congressional District.

He focused on affordability, like many other Democrats on the trail this fall. Pulido, an Edinburg native, also pointed to his roots in South Texas, mentioning an uncle who was a former county judge and another who was a former prosecutor, for why he should be elected to office.

One voter who attended, Orly Rodriguez, said he plans to vote for Pulido because of his campaign promises.

“To me, it's not about, you know, Democrat, Republican,” Rodriguez told the Sun. “To me, it's about the individual, and I'm focusing on him personally.”]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/north-carolina-ager-balkcom-midterms-race Alex Roarty, Christa Dutton, Will Hofmann The state’s once safe 11th District is slipping. “Based on early voting, it is a likely Democratic district,” a Republican strategist said. Wed, 21 Oct 2026 13:48:50 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/north-carolina-ager-balkcom-midterms-race North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District sits in a rural and conservative region of the state, has been held by a Republican for more than a decade and backed Donald Trump by a nearly double-digit margin in 2024.

And right now, it might be on the verge of turning blue in November.

Republicans are in serious danger of losing a once safe seat in the 11th District, according to more than a dozen interviews with local and national political operatives from both parties. They described the race between Democrat Jamie Ager and Republican state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom as teetering toward Democratic control for months, thanks to what one local Democratic official called a “perfect storm” of problems for Republicans both locally and nationally.

Republicans in the district suffered a blow over the summer when incumbent Rep. Chuck Edwards was forced to end his campaign under scandal. He was censured by Congress in early September following a House ethics investigation.

Conditions for the party deteriorated further this fall, as Trump’s poll numbers slid nationally and the Republican nominee for Senate in North Carolina, Michael Whatley, struggled to gain traction at the top of the ticket.

Some Republicans fear that with less than two weeks to go, the race is already lost.

“The bad environment in North Carolina, combined with a dead top of the ticket and a scandal with the incumbent made this a long shot to hold onto this cycle,” said one Republican strategist who works on House races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “They probably knew that in September but fought it out as long as they could.”

In a sign of the party’s growing skepticism about their chances in the district, No Going Back PAC, a Trump-controlled super PAC, on Tuesday canceled future ad reservations in the district, a source familiar with the group confirmed to The Washington Sun. (The spending cut was first reported by Punchbowl News.)

Other Republican groups, like the National Republican Congressional Committee, are still slated to spend in the district over the next two weeks, but party operatives are increasingly skeptical that they can salvage a win. Balkcom’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment about the race.

“I actually think the rating in the 11th District should be likely Democrat, not lean Democrat,” said one North Carolina Republican strategist, given anonymity to speak candidly about the race. “Based on early voting, it is a likely Democratic district.”

At a rally in Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday, Trump suggested that both Balkcom and Laurie Buckhout, the Republican candidate for the 1st District, were going to have “close races,” requiring a “special call out” from the president.

The Republican strategist said they expected that Rep. Richard Hudson’s race in the central part of the state, considered a safe Republican seat, would likely be more competitive on Election Day, despite it being viewed as a safe seat for the GOP for most of the cycle. Hudson recently began spending on TV advertising, and the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC has identified the race to donors as a potential target.

The GOP’s troubles in the 11th District are both a sign of how deeply Democrats might reach into formerly red terrain — Democratic operatives are increasingly confident about their chances in an array of seats Trump won by double digits — and a confluence of local factors that have made the seat uniquely tough for Republicans.

Edwards’ sudden departure left Republicans in a bind. The party had to quickly choose a new candidate after Edwards dropped out of the race following allegations that he was sexually harassing women on his congressional staff. It gave Balkcom little time — less than three months — to introduce herself to the voters across the district, which spans 16 rugged, mountainous counties.

“When we're out here talking to people, there are still people who are like, ‘Well, wait, what happened to Chuck?” said a Republican Party volunteer in western North Carolina who was given anonymity to speak candidly.

Margaret Ackiss, a member at large of the 11th District’s Republican Party who nominated Balkcom to run for the seat, described the fallout from Edwards’ scandal and late-stage dropout as resulting in a “sad state of affairs.” Balkcom’s path to winning would require balancing getting her name out in rural counties like Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Macon and Swain — the reddest parts of the region — while attempting to win unaffiliated voters near the district’s population center, Ackiss said.

“The outer rim of far western North Carolina, they have no idea who she is,” Ackiss said.

Democratic campaign operatives in Washington consider Ager one of their best recruits of the cycle. Ager has deep family roots in the district and styles himself as a “Mountain Democrat” not beholden to his party.

“The number one thing I think that’s made this competitive is Jamie Ager,” said Grayson Barnette, who is managing Ager’s campaign.

The GOP’s troubles, the national momentum for Democrats and Ager’s appeal have made local Democrats feel confident about flipping the seat.

“All of these things have just come together for a perfect storm for 2026, and that's what makes us optimistic,” said Beth Jones, Democratic chair of the 11th District.

National Democrats have been bullish on Ager’s chances for months, considering him more likely to win than many of the party’s other candidates in competitive races. One Democratic strategist gave Ager a “90%” chance of winning; another operative said they had already mentally put his race in the win column.

Some Republicans are holding out hope for Balkcom, saying that they think the race has tightened in recent weeks. Vice President JD Vance visited the district Monday to rally Republicans, in a boost to Balkcom.

“NC-11 is a Republican district, Jennifer Balkcom is a phenomenal candidate with deep local roots, and liberal Jamie Ager is a partisan Democrat whose radical tax-and-spend policies firmly align him with the Democratic Socialist extremists engaging in a hostile takeover of his party,” said Reilly Richardson, a NRCC spokesperson, in a statement. “Voters know Ager would make their lives more expensive and less safe, which is why they’ll turn out for Jennifer Balkcom.”

Some local Republicans still believe the district is a tough place for a Democrat to escape the party’s battered reputation, especially on cultural issues.

“What the Democrat Party stands for just doesn't align with the values that are deeply held by the people here,” said Merry Guy, chair of the District 11 GOP. “And I'm talking about some of those good old blue dog Democrats, too — their party has left them, and they know that.”

The district’s Republican representatives, though, have had trouble for years. Edwards’ predecessors faced scandals of their own. Former Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s time in Congress was plagued by multiple run-ins with the law and allegations that he sexually harassed college classmates. Cawthorn’s predecessor, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, was held in contempt of Congress for not complying with a subpoena from the House select committee, which was investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.

If this district flips next month, the 2024 election results serve as foreshadowing. Nine counties in the district moved slightly leftward in 2024 as a majority of the state and country moved to the right.

“It's a Republican-leaning district, but it is an election year where that may get wiped out,” said longtime Republican political consultant Carter Wrenn. He added that the dominant factor in the race is Trump rather than either candidate’s strengths.

“It’s in Trump’s hands,” Wrenn said.

Right now, the trends are not in the GOP’s favor. The war in Iran remains unpopular, and rising gas prices are frustrating voters. Economic pressures in the 11th District are compounded by what’s been a slow recovery process after Hurricane Helene ravaged the district in 2024.

Republicans are also concerned that Whatley, their Senate candidate, will stunt the success of others downballot. Whatley entered the race with Trump’s endorsement but has consistently trailed in polls to former Gov. Roy Cooper.

“Michael Whatley will be an albatross on everyone below him on the ballot, and that could’ve been controlled if President Trump would’ve kept his thumb off the scale,” said Michele Woodhouse, a former Republican chair of the 11th District.
]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/trumps-campaigning-traditional-republican-strongholds Ben T.N. Mause, Jasmine Wright GOP strategists say they are largely happy with the president’s focus on shoring up turnout instead of contesting battleground races. Wed, 21 Oct 2026 09:03:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/trumps-campaigning-traditional-republican-strongholds GREENVILLE, N.C. — President Donald Trump is doing what some didn’t expect: He’s crisscrossing the country to campaign for Republicans, spending his time — and his super PAC’s cash — to keep a blue wave from pulling the final two years of his presidency under.

The change in strategy, Trump said Tuesday night at a rally for Senate candidate Michael Whatley, was intentional.

“I'm doing something different,” he told the crowd. “I'm working like a dog, and I love being with you.”

Trump’s speech beneath a billowing American flag at a campaign rally in North Carolina was like so many others he’s given in recent weeks — one that wove together a tangle of seemingly unrelated threads rather than providing a targeted closing message for a crucial election. Instead of talking about rising consumer prices, he opined on what constitutes an attractive man, complained about election integrity and welcomed racing legend Richard Petty to talk about supporters being Trump’s “pit crew.”

But as the president storms the country to stump for candidates in the election’s closing days, his itinerary has largely focused on red states and featured nods of acknowledgment to the problems that have cratered his approval rating to historic lows and set the scene for a potential blue wave. Republicans are betting that Trump’s message matters less than his presence does.

“The rallies are working for the people that they need to work for: the base,” said Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist and the host of “War Room,” a podcast popular among Trump supporters.

Shoring up Republican turnout in traditionally red areas of the country, Bannon and other Republican operatives tell The Washington Sun, is how Trump can best serve his party during the home stretch. The president remains the best motivator for getting Republicans to vote, even as his broader popularity has faded. And with control of Congress hanging in the balance, juicing turnout is desperately needed.

“He’s firing up the base,” said Alan Powell, a Greenville-area resident at Trump’s rally Tuesday. “That’s what matters.”

Democratic candidates, super PACs and committees are pouring money into states, races and districts that Republicans won by significant margins in 2024. Democratic Senate candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and Alaska — states Trump won in 2024 by 16 percentage points, 20 points and 13 points, respectively — are leading or within striking distance of the Republican incumbents in recent polling. Democratic operatives say the party can win the Senate majority, an outcome considered almost unthinkable just two years ago.

“The problem is we’re gonna lose the House in red states,” said a conservative operative, who, like others in this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk openly about campaign dynamics. “That’s fucked up.”
Trump 26289817352212 (8026x5350, AR: 1.50)Republicans believe Trump’s presence on the campaign trail is the best counter to Democratic momentum. Turnout in the midterms trends lower than in presidential election years, and that, Republican strategists say, allows Trump to affect the outcome by activating more of the people passionate enough to vote.

“The midterm elections are all about turnout, and there's no one who energizes and engages Republican voters like President Donald J. Trump,” said RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre. “Republicans are thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent.”

Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Bannon pointed to an increase in the number of Trump’s plane-hangar rallies, likening them to the final stretch of his 2016 campaign.

“He identifies the way to do this is to get the base,” Bannon said, adding that he’s seen a demonstrable change in urgency among Trump’s most loyal voters over the past two weeks. “Not simply the vote, but to make the list for 10 people to get them out to start canvassing, calling the phone banks.”

Trump promised in September to spend the final month of the election on the road, stumping for Republican candidates. And he has. But instead of barnstorming traditional swing states, the president has spent more time bouncing across the comfortable confines of states that should be Trump Country — Alabama, Tennessee, Kansas, Ohio, Nebraska and Alaska among them.

Trump plans to visit South Carolina, Iowa and Florida before returning to Georgia this weekend and to Texas next week. He’ll also make a rare battleground stop in Michigan.

Even the stops in more competitive states and districts have landed in friendly regions. Dalton, Georgia, the site of his rambling rally on Friday, is nestled in the district Marjorie Taylor Greene represented before she left Congress. On Tuesday, Trump visited North Carolina’s 3rd District, which overwhelmingly elected Republican Rep. Greg Murphy in 2024.

Trump’s rare forays into battlegrounds have delighted Democrats and dismayed some Republicans.

“He should stick to the White House; he should just stay there,” one Republican operative in Georgia said about Trump’s visit. “All he’s doing is hurting Republicans.”

Asked about the same rally, a Georgia Democrat was gleeful.

“If Trump could come to Georgia every week, we’d invite him,” the operative said, adding that Trump’s presence could help deliver the gubernatorial race for Keisha Lance Bottoms to make her the state’s first Black governor.
Trump 26293856909032 (8210x4618, AR: 1.78)Any impact from Trump’s rallies isn’t likely to stem from his messaging. His speeches have been long, winding variations of the same talk he’s given for months: dire warnings of coming communism brought by Democrats, a defense of the ongoing Iran war and blaming his predecessor for high prices — all mixed with pleas to act like he is on the ballot, tepid praise for whichever Republicans he is stumping for and insults for those candidates’ Democratic opponents.

Specific, state-based messaging — like using the red meat of gun-control policies while rallying in Montana — has been rare. And operatives are OK with that.

“Trump usually provides a lot of different messages,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, “but everyone's used to that.”

The goal, Bonjean added, is to generate enthusiasm among the MAGA base.

“If they feel better about going to the polls because they heard from President Trump directly, then that's a win,” he said.

Trump’s visit earlier this month to Tennessee, for example, was to Montgomery County, an area that state Rep. Jeremy Faison said has felt closer to purple than red this cycle.

“Strategically, he’s trying to fit in places like that that he knows he can hopefully turn out some red voters,” Faison said.

Trump said in a Tuesday social media post that he expects to spend over $400 million by Nov. 3, seemingly referring to spending from his affiliated super PACs. He added that $300 million has already been spent, including on advertising, voter turnout and rallies.

One Democratic operative said it was smart to focus on boosting turnout within Republican strongholds rather than risking alienating swing-state voters. It showed Trump is “reading the room,” they added.

But if Trump’s trips to Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan lead to more battleground rallies, that operative said they wouldn’t be sad. Another Democratic strategist took it even further after Trump’s rally in Kansas on Monday, where he was heckled by a protester screaming, “I fucking hate you!”

“If Trump wants to stay in Kansas for the next two weeks,” the strategist said, “I wouldn’t mind!”]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/trump-voters-survey-economy Alex Roarty A center-left think tank’s latest survey finds trouble for Republicans — alongside warnings for Democrats. Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:19:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/trump-voters-survey-economy One-third of voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 think his presidency is going worse than expected, according to a new poll — a worrying sign for Republicans as they try to save the party’s congressional majorities ahead of next month’s election.

The survey from the center-left Democratic think tank Third Way found that the share of Trump voters who thought things were going worse than expected had swelled from 22% in their April survey to 33% in September, when the new poll was conducted.

Overall, 56% of all voters in the survey said they thought Trump’s presidency was going worse than expected. Just 16% of them said it was going better than they thought it would.

The poll’s results are part of a flurry of public opinion data showing Trump’s poor standing with the electorate, with some surveys showing his approval ratings slipping to the mid-30s. The president’s popularity has been a major issue in this year’s election, which has seen GOP candidates on the defensive in House and Senate seats once deemed safely Republican.

Third Way’s survey leaves little doubt about the primary reason for Trump’s sagging approval ratings: the economy. Ninety percent of voters in the survey say the country is experiencing high inflation; another 55% of voters say the country is in a recession.

The survey is Third Way’s fifth installment of its Signal series, which officials with the group have designed to help guide the Democratic Party’s messaging both before and after the midterm election.

In addition to worrying news for Republicans, the latest poll also contains a warning for Democrats who hope a Democratic-controlled Congress aggressively confronts the president. Twenty-seven percent of voters think Democrats “should prioritize investigating Trump for misconduct and impeaching the president if he has broken the law,” the poll found, while 68% said Democrats should “prioritize bringing down costs for the American people, not investigations and impeachment.”

The survey also found much broader support for policies like auditing the federal government than implementing single-payer health care, a favorite of progressives.

The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters from Sept. 17 through Sept. 24. It was conducted by the Democratic polling firm GBAO.]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/influence/michael-whatley-mike-collins-senate-fundraising-republicans Hunter Riggall, Chase Pellegrini de Paur Battleground candidates in Georgia and North Carolina are watching their odds dwindle as money evaporates. Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:45:47 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/influence/michael-whatley-mike-collins-senate-fundraising-republicans In North Carolina and Georgia, Democratic Senate candidates are lapping their Republican rivals in fundraising, according to new campaign finance reports.

It’s the latest ominous sign for Michael Whatley and Mike Collins, the Republican candidates who have seen national party attention shift to other races amid attempts to win enough seats to retain a Senate majority.

North Carolina’s Whatley raised $13.4 million during the two-year 2026 election cycle. His Democratic opponent, Roy Cooper, raised nearly that much money in just the three-month period from July to September — and $47 million overall for the cycle.

Cooper ended September with $12.5 million on hand. Whatley ended September with about $900,000 on hand, according to FEC records.

Cooper has consistently led Whatley in polling. Earlier this month, Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund super PAC shifted funds from North Carolina to races in Kansas and South Carolina, and Whatley’s own campaign committee does not have any TV ads reserved.

In Georgia, Collins has raised just $5.8 million this election cycle through Sept. 30 — a tiny fraction of the nearly $125 million incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has raised.

Ossoff raised $33 million from July through September and entered October armed with $26 million ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3.
Election 2026 Georgia Ossoff (6000x4000, AR: 1.50)Collins raised $2.8 million during the same three-month span and had only $1.1 million on hand entering October.

As in North Carolina, Ossoff has consistently led in Georgia polls, and national PACs aligned with both parties have pulled spending out — a sign they view an Ossoff victory as a fait accompli.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s Senate Leadership Fund shifted nearly $2 million from Georgia to South Carolina, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC removed ad spending it had reserved for this week.

Thune’s Senate Leadership Fund finished September with $155 million on hand, while Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC reported $112 million.

Thune’s PAC is spending heavily in Alaska, Maine and Texas.

In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton, the party’s Senate nominee, is being supported by more than $150 million in super PAC cash from Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. Paxton’s own campaign raised $10.3 million from July 1 through Sept. 30 and had $4.9 million on hand going into October.

Democrat James Talarico’s campaign committee raised $60 million during the same period, bringing his fundraising total for the cycle to nearly $129 million. Talarico’s campaign began October with $14.6 million on hand, according to FEC records.]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/alaska-swing-state-peltola Alex Roarty This year’s tight races are part of a decades-long trend. “I believe it is turning purple. I can feel it,” Mark Begich told The Sun. Fri, 16 Oct 2026 09:40:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/alaska-swing-state-peltola ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Mary Peltola is widely perceived — at least in Washington — to have a real chance at winning her marquee U.S. Senate race here because of her talent as a politician and a brutal national political climate for Republicans.

But there’s an overlooked factor boosting her campaign ahead of November’s election.

After being a firmly Republican state for most of its existence, Alaska has slowly but steadily moved left in recent elections, becoming more supportive of Democratic candidates at every level of elected office. By 2024, the state was more politically similar to right-of-center battlegrounds like Ohio and Iowa, where Democrats are often at least competitive statewide, than to the conservative strongholds like Wyoming and Idaho it used to resemble.

And unlike Ohio and Iowa, Alaska is continuing to move left: A Washington Sun analysis of presidential results found that from the 2000 election to 2024 election, Alaska shifted 20 points to the left relative to the national popular vote. That’s the fourth most of any state, trailing only Vermont, Colorado and Utah, according to the analysis.

From 2008 to 2024, it moved further toward Democrats than any other state, a 17-point shift. (The GOP performed especially well in Alaska in 2008 thanks in part to former Gov. Sarah Palin’s presence on the GOP ticket.)

The change is evident on the ground. In interviews with The Sun, more than a dozen party leaders, elected officials and political strategists described a state whose cities have become more progressive, whose state legislative battlegrounds have swung toward Democrats and whose top elected jobs — including one senator and governor — might soon be under the party’s control.

Democrats, cautiously optimistic about Peltola’s chances against Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, are even more bullish about the prospects of the party’s de facto gubernatorial nominee Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins.

It all leads to a conclusion that even some die-hard Democrats in Alaska are squeamish to admit after years and years of Republican dominance: Alaska might be becoming a genuine swing state.

“I believe it is turning purple. I can feel it,” said Mark Begich, a former Democratic senator. “It’ll probably take two more cycles to prove it.”

The state’s political evolution has big implications for its Senate race this year, which some party strategists are counting on to help Democrats gain the four seats they need for majority control of the chamber in 2027.

But, just as importantly, the transformation might offer a long-term lifeline for a Democratic Party with few viable targets in Senate races in the coming years, boxed in by a map filled with red states. And even though the state only carries three votes in the electoral college, its tiny sliver of votes could make the difference in tight presidential races when so many states are otherwise noncompetitive. The state’s White House result in 2024 was the 29th most friendly to Democrats, just behind Florida and Iowa, two states trending the wrong direction for the party.

Competing in Alaska might not be a question of something the party wants to do, but something the party has to do.

“If Democrats can’t consistently keep Alaska on the political battlefield, where else can they make that up?” said David de la Fuente, a political analyst with the Democratic think tank Third Way. “And it’s hard to make an argument for anywhere else.”
Dan Sullivan,Nick Begich,Julie Fate Sullivan (5115x3410, AR: 1.50)Initially, after being admitted as the 49th state in 1959, Alaska was seen as a state that would reliably vote for Democrats. But an oil boom in the 1960s on the state’s north slope transformed Alaska’s economy and its politics, bringing with it immense wealth and a wariness of the Democratic Party’s environmental agenda. Alaska last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1964, when it backed Lyndon B. Johnson.

Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, well short of the 25-point-plus victories George W. Bush racked up in the 2000s, but a double-digit victory nonetheless.

Alaska Republicans maintain that even if the margins are smaller than they used to be, the state remains reliably conservative at the federal level, in large part because of the incompatibility of the national Democratic Party’s environmental policies and the state’s economic needs.

“Alaska's future is heavily dependent upon our ability to effectively advocate for resource development in our state,” Republican Rep. Nick Begich said in an interview. “And the Democrat Party, for whatever reason, has not been supportive of resource development in Alaska for many years. And they've proven that as a core component of their national platform, they are not willing to support resource development in our state.”

Nick Begich, who also faces a competitive race this year against the Democratic-backed independent candidate Bill Hill, pointed out that Democrats like former senator Mark Begich and Peltola had won statewide general elections in Alaska before (in 2008 and 2022, respectively) only to lose their next election. It’s a sign, he said, that even if voters here are willing to give Democrats a chance, they’re rarely willing to stick with them after they’ve been in office.
Election 2026-Alaska (5184x3456, AR: 1.50)Even the most bullish Democrats say that even if the state is trending their way, it will always retain a distinct political independence. Alaska’s unique characteristics — its oil and fishing industries, native Alaskan population and rugged arctic climate — mean its politics are unlike any other state’s, often less ideologically driven and more focused on demanding basic material support for communities that would suffer without it.

It’s why the state elected an independent governor last decade and why the state legislature for years has had an unusual power-sharing agreement between Democrats and moderate Republicans, designed to exclude extreme voices in either party. It also explains how Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski won a write-in reelection campaign in 2010 after losing her primary to a tea party-backed candidate, drawing support from across the political spectrum.

Still, some Democrats have quietly touted Alaska’s emerging importance for years, especially after Peltola’s 2022 victory in the state’s at-large House seat. De la Fuente, the Third Way official, wrote an analysis in 2023 urging then-President Joe Biden to consider competing in the state during the next presidential election.

The state’s demographic profile — including a low share of white voters, relatively high union participation and low religiosity — aligned with the modern Democratic Party, he wrote at the time, and was a major reason the state had shifted to the left over the previous two decades. In his view, Alaska represented a much better bet for Democrats than states like Florida, Ohio and Iowa, which received considerably more attention as potential battlegrounds.

“I feel like the political data is telling a very strong story here, of this not being a fluke,” de la Fuente told The Sun.
APTOPIX Vance (6000x4000, AR: 1.50)Why Alaska has shifted politically is a subject of debate. The state’s electorate, on the surface, has not changed significantly since 2000, according to Census data.

Some political strategists point to the declining number of oil and gas jobs, which started last decade and intensified after the 2020 pandemic and proliferation of remote work. Others say Alaska’s unusual open primary system, implemented in 2022 in which the top four vote getting candidates move on to the general election, has contributed, helping Democrats nominate more moderate candidates they consider better aligned with the state.

But locally, Democrats point to two main factors: the evolution of politics in Anchorage and the priority local Democrats place on political pragmatism.

Anchorage, at a population of nearly 300,000 people, holds about 40% of the state’s total population. And at a local level, its politics have shifted left.

Mark Begich recounted that as a young Democrat running for a seat on the city assembly here in the 1980s, every level of elected office in the town’s eastern half — from governor down to local legislator — was represented by a conservative or Republican (the city’s assembly seats are nonpartisan). Now, east Anchorage is represented at every level of state government by liberals or Democrats.

Across the city, local politicos say a 12-member assembly that used to be evenly split ideologically is now almost uniformly liberal, save for one or two members.

“Anchorage growing up is part of the story,” said Eric Croft, chair of the state Democratic Party. “Anchorage is getting to be a medium-sized city that, like a lot of them, is getting more and more progressive.”

Anchorage, in other words, is following the same political path of a lot of cities across the country.

“People that are living in Anchorage want good schools for their kids and actually want parks and amenities,” said Jim Lottsfeldt, an independent political strategist. “And there's sort of been a maturation process of what we expect from our government and what we want as far as public facilities.”

To other Democrats, it’s hard to miss how the state’s leftward drift over the past 20 years corresponded with the rise of the tea party movement and, later, Trump — two ideologically driven movements they argue are at odds with the state’s pragmatic bent.

“I think Alaskans, given their druthers, would vote for a nice Chamber of Commerce Republican,” said Joelle Hall, emeritus president of the Alaska AFL-CIO.
“A banker. A nice guy. A civically minded, slightly conservative guy. That's their drug of choice.” 


“That's not what's been offered to them lately,” Hall said.

In 2000, with George W. Bush on the ballot, Alaska voted 31.5 percentage points to the right of the country (Bush won Alaska by 31 points while losing the national popular vote by one-half of a point). In 2024, with Trump again leading the GOP ticket, the state voted just 11.5 percentage points to the right of the nation (Trump won Alaska by 13 points while winning the national popular vote by 1.5 points).

Democrats are emphatic that the quality of the individual candidate on the ballot is hugely important in Alaska. It’s why they don’t think that Murkowski, who has done more to separate herself from Trump than perhaps any other Senate Republican, will face a serious challenge from Democrats when she’s up for reelection in 2028.
Capitol Hill (4680x3120, AR: 1.50)It’s also why in-state Democrats are most skeptical about the party’s presidential chances in Alaska anytime soon. The party’s White House nominee usually has a different, more ideological profile than the types of candidates Democrats run in the state. Peltola’s views on energy development, for instance, would likely draw a fierce backlash from national Democrats’ progressive base.

Even progressives in the state say that Democrats run a different kind of campaign in Alaska than elsewhere.

“Those of us who are progressive have embraced bipartisanship,” said Zack Fields, a Democratic state representative who represents part of Anchorage. “And rather than talk about whatever crazy identity politics that has seized the national Democratic Party, we talk about bread-and-butter issues that affect families every single day. We talk about class size, we talk about energy security, we are just relentlessly pro-jobs.”

Fields said that if Democrats nationally embraced the approach he and his colleagues have taken in Alaska, they “would have 85% of the seats in Congress.”

But, he added, the state is often overlooked by the national party. It’s why its shift to the left this century has been largely ignored, even if it could help the party win a Senate majority this November.

“People in the Lower 48 are not aware of it,” Fields said. “If Alaska were the geographic distance to D.C. of West Virginia or another state nearby, there’d be all kinds of stories about it because it’s super interesting.”]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/democrats-debate-bo-french Emma Ruby Bo French is the only high-profile Texas Republican candidate expected to debate, but he has not publicly said whether he will. Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:31:06 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/democrats-debate-bo-french To find a Texas Republican willing to step onto a debate stage this election cycle, you’ll have to go as far down the ballot as the railroad commissioner race.

But even that’s a maybe.

Bo French, the Republican candidate for the agency that regulates Texas’ oil and gas industry who was criticized by members of his party after putting a racist post on social media, is expected to participate in a debate against Democrat Jon Rosenthal on Oct. 22.

Rosenthal’s campaign and the vice president of the DFW Press & Media Club, which is hosting the event, told The Washington Sun the debate is on. But French’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment. The press club has not received written confirmation of French’s participation, and French has not publicly stated the debate is taking place.

Other Republicans higher up the ticket declined invitations to the debate stage, leaving some Democrats skeptical that the French-Rosenthal debate will happen at all. Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, told The Washington Sun he’d be “shocked” if French showed up to the debate.

He hopes it will happen, though.

“Anytime that Texans learn more about Bo French helps the Democratic Party,” Scudder said. “Texans aren't stupid … they know a scoundrel when they see one.”

French was widely condemned last month over a social media post targeting South Asian students celebrating a comeback win at a University of Texas-Austin football game, saying the “problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”

His post prompted Republicans from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to Sen. John Cornyn to distance themselves. For Democrats, French’s rhetoric proved to be a boon. The weeks following his post represented a fundraising high for Rosenthal, who brought in $488,000 as of Oct. 6, according to The Texas Tribune.

So Democrats see the opportunity to get French on stage as potentially lucrative, particularly as national attention is drawn to the state’s Senate race, which could flip for Democrats for the first time in decades.

One person close to the Rosenthal campaign, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told The Sun that the Democrat has been going through debate preparation and that the campaign sees the opportunity to take the stage alongside French as a “win-win opportunity.” “If [French] doesn’t go, he’s going to look like a coward,” the person said. “If he goes, I think we’re going to come out looking pretty good.”

JoAnne Asenime, vice president of the DFW Press & Media Club, told The Sun that the organization planned to host several debates but struggled to get Republican buy-in.

“I don't know if it's due to scheduling or other reasons, but the Republican side of things has declined,” Asenime said.

Still, there have been some high-profile election events in Texas. On Wednesday, James Talarico, the Democrat running for Senate, participated in a town hall hosted by CNN and Jubilee Media. CNN anchor and moderator Erin Burnett opened the event by stating that Talarico’s Republican opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, had been offered the “opportunity to appear.”

“He has yet to respond, but that invitation still stands,” Burnett said.

Paxton has turned down multiple requests by Talarico to debate despite a campaign spokesperson saying earlier this year that “of course” the Republican would be open to such a forum.

During a recent stint in which Talarico was off the campaign trail, President Donald Trump jumped at the opportunity to point out the Democrat’s absence. On Truth Social, the president posted that Talarico should “immediately report to a Debate Stage against Ken Paxton, who is ready, willing, and able.”

Talarico seized the opportunity.

“Ball’s in your court, @KenPaxtonTX,” he said in a tweet.

Another key Paxton ally, Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), joined in the calls for a debate on Thursday. “I certainly think it would be enlightening,” he said during an appearance on Fox News.

Paxton’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Abbott, who has taken part in debates in his previous gubernatorial campaigns, declined debate invitations from Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. On Thursday, Hinojosa stood on the steps of the Texas governor’s mansion beside an empty lectern and called on Abbott to debate.

Abbott’s campaign did not respond to The Sun’s request for comment.

“I just think Republicans are chickenshit,” Scudder said. “They don't have a record that they can stand behind or defend. So I don't blame them for not getting on a debate stage.”
]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/sen-john-kennedy-republican-surrogate-midterms-viral Igor Bobic, Al Weaver The Louisiana Republican’s popular quips and TikTok videos have helped him garner a following — and GOP candidates hope it translates into votes. Thu, 15 Oct 2026 09:10:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/sen-john-kennedy-republican-surrogate-midterms-viral HIGHLAND TOWNSHIP, Mich. — Addressing a group of a dozen or so reporters at his campaign event here last week, Mike Rogers, the Republican candidate for Senate in Michigan, joked he might not be the main attraction.

John Kennedy, the Louisiana senator popular on the right for one-liners delivered in a Southern drawl, had just entered the room at a countryside winery and farm north of Detroit. And Rogers quickly gave him the floor.

"It's like following the baton twirler in the talent show,” Rogers said. “You know you're never going to win that thing, so I'm going to turn it over to the baton twirler."

The two-term senator has become one of the most public faces in the upper chamber due in large part to his folksy aphorisms that have been blasted far and wide. He’s become a staple of cable news and social media, where clips of his questioning of individuals before committees frequently go viral.

Only helping matters is his best-selling book “How to Test Negative for Stupid,” which reached No. 1 on The New York Times bestsellers list and remained on it for nearly half a year.
Mike Rogers and Sen. John Kennedy (3000x2000, AR: 1.50)It’s also turned him into a go-to surrogate for battleground Republican Senate candidates in a tough political environment where an appearance by President Donald Trump might not necessarily help. In recent weeks, Kennedy has stumped for candidates in Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Nebraska, Ohio and Alaska.

“John is a celebrity senator beloved by Republicans,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) told The Washington Sun. “He draws praise from people who like his politics and those who like him. He’s easy to like. We need more people to like more Republicans. I’m glad he’s on our side.”

Kennedy is also prodigious on another front: fundraising.

One senior Senate Republican aide told The Sun that Kennedy, alongside Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), is at the top of the conference in raking in online contributions.

“He's been raising a shitload of money online for years,” the aide said. “He's building a bigger presence.”

At his event stumping for Rogers in Michigan last week, Kennedy was greeted with a celebrity-like reception by hundreds of supporters clad in flannel and cowboy hats. Cell phones lit up all over a huge barn as people filmed his speech, which was heavy on Southern expressions and familiar punchlines about liberals.

“You can do what you want, but to me, kale tastes like I'd rather be fat,” he said, eliciting a huge wave of laughter.

Another Kennedy barn burner? “When you pass a ditch here in Michigan, you go, ‘OK, that’s a ditch.’ When we pass a ditch in Louisiana, we see dinner.”

The crowd ate it up, giving him a standing ovation.

But Kennedy also sprinkled in pointed critiques about Washington, where Republicans control the White House and both chambers of Congress. Those digs at his own colleagues have led to speculation about a potential 2028 presidential run, which he said recently he is considering. He conceded that he’s leaning toward running for reelection, but that could change if the party’s crop of candidates are “a bunch of goobers.”
Senator John N Kennedy (3000x2000, AR: 1.50)El-SayedandRogers_RMorton-54 copy.jpg (3000x2000, AR: 1.50)“Nobody's coming to save us but ourselves, folks,” Kennedy said in Michigan. “The water in Washington, D.C., is not going to clear up until you get the pigs out of the creek. And you gotta keep the pigs out of the creek.”

Dayne Webb, a college student from Kalamazoo, Michigan, said the 74-year-old senator is popular with young conservatives like himself, including some who are turned off by Trump.

“He's funny and he seems to capture my generation's attention, especially on TikTok,” Webb told The Sun. He said the Louisiana senator’s presence on the platform is boosting his popularity. “When he started talking about maybe running for president, people on TikTok were like, ‘I hate Trump, but I love John Kennedy.’”

Kennedy has made waves during other campaign stops. During one in Nebraska to help Sen. Pete Ricketts’ reelection bid, Kennedy mused that he liked the state “better than sex.”

“Not really,” he said to howls in the crowd. “But I love Nebraska.”

One GOP operative who recently saw Kennedy on the stump in Alaska said that his appearance was a “hoot.”

“In an environment where people are so saturated with nonstop negative ads, it was refreshing to hear from somebody who cut through it all with a little humor and a lot of straight talk,” the operative said.

Strategists are also quick to note that there’s more to Kennedy than just endless aphorisms. He attended Oxford University and is considered one of the sharpest questioners on the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he has tripped up both Democratic and Republican judicial nominees.

“He's an incredibly intelligent and thoughtful person. I think people don't fully grasp that until they pay attention to what he is doing and how he is doing it,” one Louisiana-based Republican operative said.
El-SayedandRogers_RMorton-41 copy.jpg (3000x2000, AR: 1.50)“Everyone knows the quips, but people take him seriously on the policy side, beyond the Fox News stuff,” added another Republican operative. In addition to his work on judicial nominations, Kennedy has been active on banking policy.

But Kennedy has also drawn sharp criticism from Democrats, who suspect his accent is an act. A photo of his involvement in the bungled “gotcha” attempt on former special counsel Jack Smith by Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Missouri) at a Senate hearing last month went viral. And Rogers’ Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, lashed out at Kennedy last week after he implied El-Sayed is a terrorist who “sleeps in a bin Laden jersey.”

“That’s rich coming from someone who wears his bed sheets out at night,” El-Sayed wrote in a post on X.

El-Sayed also mocked Rogers for campaigning with Kennedy at a barn last week.

“So it'll be Kennedy telling jokes to animals and Mike Rogers sitting there? Should be a lot of fun,” he told reporters at an event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

But Republicans are glad Kennedy is on the campaign trail to help turn out voters who have soured on some of the Trump administration’s policies, including the Iran war, which has driven up the cost of gas and groceries.

“Kennedy has used a little bit more finesse than me when he disagrees with the president. He's the right sort of person to appeal … beyond the MAGA base,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) told The Sun, adding that while Trump supporters enjoy his style, Kennedy also played a key role in the ouster of Kristi Noem from her post as homeland security secretary.

“He's the right guy to show some independence and really shows some of these candidates that you got to show some independence in the final stretch here, or it's going to be a referendum on Trump,” Tillis said.]]> https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/kansas-senate-race-marshall-hamilton-spending Elena Schneider “It’s hard to believe we’re messing around in Kansas,” one Republican strategist said. Wed, 14 Oct 2026 09:55:00 GMT https://www.washingtonsun.com/campaigns/kansas-senate-race-marshall-hamilton-spending HUTCHINSON, Kan. — A retired farmer who voted for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in 2020 is now backing Adam Hamilton, his Democratic challenger, because the senator’s been a “yes-man” for President Donald Trump. A community college instructor and registered Republican said she’s supporting Hamilton because he’s “a true moderate.”

Ed Berger, an 81-year-old self-described “Republican-leaning” voter who declined to say if he’d voted for Trump before, said it’s the president’s tariffs, the war in Iran and spiraling diesel and gas prices that’s making Kansas competitive.

“What’s happening here, you see it in a lot of races across the country right now,” Berger said.

It’s these frustrated voters — hundreds of whom showed up in central, rural Kansas to hear from Hamilton, some donning “Republicans for Hamilton” pins — who are putting Kansas in play. Hamilton, who leads the largest United Methodist Church congregation in the country, is tied in public polling with Marshall, a doctor who was first elected in 2020.

The dead heat in this state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century “is a microcosm of all of Republicans’ problems nationally,” said a national GOP pollster, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. The race now also epitomizes the Republican strategy to save their Senate majority.

Republicans are pouring money onto the problem. The Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP-aligned leadership PAC, has funneled $14 million to Kansas, cutting from some of its buys in North Carolina, where the Democratic candidate holds a commanding polling lead. Nationally, Republicans spent $200 million more on ads in September than Democrats, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. In Senate races alone, pro-Republican groups have outspent Democrats by nearly $300 million across eight statewide contests, AdImpact found.

“Kansas Republicans have historically relied on significant turnout west of Kansas City, and if that comes, Marshall will be fine, but if that doesn’t materialize, you’re going to have problems,” the pollster said. “That’s why the infusion of cash here should, hopefully — and that’s the important word here, hopefully — do enough to mitigate the biggest problem Republicans face this cycle, which is turnout.”

National Republicans hoped their enormous financial advantage would blunt the toxic political environment. They’re dropping millions on ads attempting to disqualify their Democratic opponents and buoy their deflated base. And while that cash has helped Republicans stay competitive in some states, there’s fires popping up across the map.

“It’s hard to believe we’re messing around in Kansas or South Carolina,” one national Republican strategist lamented, referring to the $5 million the Senate Leadership Fund put into South Carolina to shore up Sen. Darline Graham. In Kansas, “you have a perfect storm brewing,” said a second national GOP strategist, “but all of that said, Kansas is red and super partisan.”

The hope, Republicans privately acknowledge, is to buy their way out of their Kansas problem.

“They’re going to try and buy it because it’s their best available option, but it’s not what Marshall is lacking. He’s lacking a ground game and a good message,” said a Kansas Republican operative, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “Marshall’s a bad candidate running a bad campaign in a bad cycle, but he’s got a 10-point cushion to work with. He might use most or all of it, but he still wins.”

Hamilton called the GOP spending onslaught “a great compliment” when asked about it after speaking to more than 150 people at Bethany College in Lindsborg, Kansas, last week — where he led the audience in singing the hymn “All Creatures of Our God and King.” 

“If you are giving us $14 million in Kansas — in Kansas — that means you're afraid,” Hamilton said, “and it means you're recognizing that there are a lot of Republicans who might be voting for a Democrat in the state of Kansas, and that's actually what's happening.”

Democrats are putting up their own answer. Senate Majority PAC, the group closely aligned with Democratic Senate leadership, added $5 million to the race last weekend. People Over Politics, another pro-Hamilton super PAC, added $3 million to its own ad buys earlier this month, bringing it to $6 million in spending.

Kansas has been a trouble spot for Republicans before. But, as one senior Republican strategist put it, “there’s always a Kansas bailout.” A pattern appears to be repeating: This week, Axios reported that Chris Grant, a top Trump campaign operative, would join the Marshall campaign’s efforts in the final weeks.

In 2014, then-Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) brought in national consultant Corry Bliss to take over his campaign amid concerns about independent Greg Orman’s challenge (Roberts ultimately won by 11 percentage points). In 2020, Marshall led state Sen. Barbara Bollier by just 4 percentage points in public polling in October, but he ultimately prevailed by 11 points.

“Kansas has seen this song and dance over the decades,” said Rob Fillion, the executive director of the Kansas Republican Party. “Now, I’m a realist, and I don’t think Roger Marshall is going to win by 11 points, just because it’s a midterm election — but I see that as the reason he still wins. Republicans typically come home, and I think Republicans are hesitant to take polls.”

Trump is taking another step to bring Republicans home: He plans to host a rally in Wichita next week, extending a run of campaign stops in states that his party won comfortably just two years ago.

In a statement, a Marshall spokesperson said “Kansans have a clear choice” between “a senator who has fought for and delivered major wins for our farmers” and “a Chuck Schumer-funded Democrat.”

Samantha Cantrell, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson, called Hamilton a “pedophile protector who would vote with Democrats like Chuck Schumer,” referring to local coverage of Hamilton’s handling of a report of child sex abuse at a church camp two decades ago.

But Kansas Republicans said Hamilton’s unique profile, coupled with Marshall’s own weaknesses, puts this seat in particular danger. “People know Hamilton, his church, for years,” said a second Kansas GOP operative, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.

“Hamilton has a lot of name recognition and he’s well respected, while Roger Marshall has lost touch. That’s the feeling on the ground,” they added. “Marshall is not charismatic, and he’s had a slew of problems pop up.”

Those problems include reports of him suing more than 700 patients, some of whom were arrested for missed court dates. Marshall has also spent taxpayer money traveling to Sarasota, Florida, where he once owned property, but he told KAKE last week that accusations by the Hamilton campaign that he lives in Florida are “all lies.”

Interest in Hamilton, even in rural Kansas, was on vivid display last week as he swung through standing-room-only stops in Salina, Lindsborg and Hutchinson, a trio of small cities that dot central, rural Kansas and cut through Marshall’s former congressional district. Hamilton laces his stump speeches with biblical passages, integrating call-and-responses from the crowd in his storytelling that demonstrates his years delivering sermons.

“I was watching President Trump's inauguration, and I was praying, ‘God, please give him wisdom. Please help him have compassion.’ … I can tell you, just because you're a pastor does not mean your prayers are answered,” Hamilton said to laughter in the crowd, crammed inside a Salina bookstore.

Hamilton initially considered running as an independent, but ultimately “he was convinced by Democrats in high places that the two-party system is too locked in,” said Stephanie Sharp, a Republican strategist in Kansas who advised Hamilton in the early stages of his campaign. Sharp, a member of Hamilton’s church, said Hamilton knows he must win Republicans and independents because Democrats make up only a quarter of the electorate, and “no one wins with a quarter of the voters.”

He’s leaned into those differences with his party on several issues, including on who might lead the Senate caucus in 2027. He won’t vote for Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, he said in an interview. (“No disrespect to him,” he added.)

“It's time for new leadership, time for younger leadership, time for fresh ideas, and in Kansas, Chuck Schumer is a liability, not an asset,” Hamilton said. “And that's true, I think, almost in every state in the union.”

That pitch, Democrats hope, will mean more coming from a candidate without a voting record and with an in-state brand. He’s also capitalizing on a strategy laid out by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, a moderate who maximized turnout in the Kansas City and Wichita suburbs and lost by less in the rural counties like those Hamilton campaigned in last week.

Hamilton isn’t positioning himself as the proverbial fighter, like other Democrats this fall. Instead, at Bethany College he called himself a “radical centrist,” not the “milquetoasty middle.” He is “just as determined to try to listen to those liberals” and “just as determined not to demonize the conservatives,” he said.

“He’s so good at explaining the humanity of an issue, explaining the gray,” Sharp said.

Leaning into his Christian values appealed to James Bowden, a 39-year-old independent who attended a packed meet and greet at the Red Fern Booksellers in Salina. He “dragged” his mother, Nancy, a Trump voter, to hear Hamilton’s pitch because he wanted her to vote with “the knowledge of who they are, rather than the rumor of who they are.”

Nancy Bowden said that while she “agrees with” Hamilton “on a lot of things,” she can’t vote for him because of her “staunch belief about abortion and about transgender.” (“I can’t vote for a Democrat because of that, but I do like him,” she added.)

Hamilton addressed his position on abortion later that day, recounting how his own mother, who was 17 at the time, considered aborting him in utero. Talking to a voter who asked about his position on abortion rights, Hamilton said he felt “this moral tension, and at the same time, a conviction that there needs to be safe and legal access to abortion.”

“I know there are Republicans who are sick of what’s going on right now,” James Bowden said after Hamilton’s stump speech. “I think my dad might be. Mom might have a different opinion.”]]>