Not Going Awesome for Jodey Arrington

Today’s notice: Jodey Arrington has enemies. It’s getting harder to say tax cuts pay for themselves with a straight face. Plus: A math teacher’s quest to make Congress care about headlights.

A New Dynamic for Republican Tax Cutters

Remember “dynamic scoring”? It was the magic model Republicans used in 2017 to promise their massive tax cut bill would pay for itself.

Now with a new GOP trifecta days away, big tax cuts are on the table again. But NOTUS’ Violet Jira and Anna Kramer report how dynamic scoring won’t be able to provide the political cover it did in Donald Trump’s first term.

“With inflation still higher than average and government borrowing continuing to grow, there are significantly fewer levers Republicans can pull for growth contributions,” the pair write. “Unlike in 2017, Republicans won’t be able to easily use the math of economic models to hide the fact that creating growth is going to be difficult.”

The situation creates some tough political options. Massive tax cuts would require massive spending cuts, but that’s hard to do, especially if the reconciliation bill also includes paying for expensive Trump immigration promises. Some Republicans are hoping new energy policy will make up the difference and help them create a bill that earns at least a deficit-neutral score.

There are other, more familiar plans in the works, too. “Some say they still have faith in the dynamic score and are looking to outside experts for models,” Anna and Violet write, while others are simply suggesting a return to the politics of trashing scoring experts.

Read the story.

Not a Great Start When This Is What They’re Saying About the Budget Guy

“He is all over the place and doesn’t understand what the f**k he’s doing.”

That’s what one senior Republican aide said of one of the most important people right now in Washington: House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington.

Arrington will be a key player in the first year of Trump’s return to D.C., running the panel that will oversee the reconciliation process. Fellow Republican lawmakers and staffers, however, told NOTUS’ Reese Gorman they don’t think he’s up to the job.

Questions about Arrington’s ability to handle one of Congress’ most complex jobs aren’t exactly new. Kevin McCarthy famously said he had “no confidence” in Arrington. But the chair’s recent missteps — including suggesting raising the corporate tax rate in a Republican Study Committee meeting — have fanned his colleagues’ frustrations.

“He’s so ill-equipped,” one source who’s worked closely with Arrington told NOTUS. “The worst people are the people who are ignorant and arrogant. He thinks he knows everything but he knows nothing.”

Read the story.

Front Page

• Democrats Wave Away the Inroads Republicans Made in Blue States: Democrats say they need better messaging, not different policies.
• The House Is Trying to Make Congressional Jobs Easier With AI: “Basically any of the tasks that involve essentially file cabinet labor, it’s really gonna be open for helping with AI.”
• Party Veterans Defend Their Work Amid Growing Pressures to Clean House at the DNC: The Democratic Party’s post-2024 reckoning is spilling into down-ballot leadership elections.
• Louisiana Wants to Fend Off California’s Insurance Disaster — But It May Create Another Mess: Consumer advocates and some lawmakers say the federal government needs to step in to protect homeowners.

Quotable

“He is the least qualified person to be secretary of defense in our nation’s history, that as far as I can tell, at least in modern history.”

That’s Sen. Tammy Duckworth, who sat down with NOTUS’ John T. Seward on Thursday to talk through Pete Hegseth’s nomination to be defense secretary. As you can see — and maybe saw yourself during this week’s confirmation hearing — the Illinois Democrat and Army veteran isn’t exactly thrilled.

Also not impressing Duckworth? The FBI’s background check process.

“The American public thinks that the FBI background investigation is something that is requested in a bipartisan way from the committee or from the Senate. It’s not,” the senator said

Read the story.

Quest of the Day: Headlight Reform

The extremely bright headlights on newer cars annoy many people, and now some of them want Congress to do something about it. NOTUS’ Emily Kennard dives into the quixotic and so far unsuccessful effort by a former California math teacher to make this a thing on Capitol Hill. Rep. Mike Thompson, the math teacher’s representative, is on board, linking up with Rep. Mark Pocan to formally ask the FDA to look into the bright lights. But Pocan also said “he hadn’t personally noticed headlights being too bright and that his office was just responding to a constituent’s concern.”

Good luck out there, former math teacher!

Read the story.

Not Us

We know NOTUS reporters can’t cover it all. Here’s some other great hits by… not us.

• Deportation at ‘light speed’: How Trump’s crackdown could unfold by Nick Miroff, Álvaro Valiño, Adrián Blanco Ramos and Steven Rich for The Washington Post
• Democratic Senators Say a Campaign Treasurer Stole Their Money by Dave Levinthal for Rolling Stone
• Meta Is Laying the Narrative Groundwork for Trump’s Mass Deportations by Joseph Cox at 404 Media

Be Social

“All I need is protein, caffeine and nicotine.” — Republican lawmakers (probably)

Tell Us Your Thoughts

Send your thoughts to newsletters@notus.org.

Thank you for reading! If you like this edition of the NOTUS newsletter, please forward it to a friend. If this newsletter was shared with you, please subscribe (it’s free!).