North Carolina’s Senate race is already a big deal for Democrats who are looking to cut into Republicans’ majority in 2026. But the party is raising the stakes even further: They think next year’s election will also say something about Democrats’ viability in 2032.
Census projections show reliably blue states losing population, making it all the more important for Democrats to show they can compete in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia, party operatives say.
“For Democrats to be competitive long term and be able to win presidential races in ‘32 and ‘36 and, whatever the next 20 years looks like, we’re going to have to win consistently states like North Carolina and Georgia that are gaining population,” Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist and adviser to Roy Cooper’s Senate campaign said. “We can’t rely just on the blue wall states that are losing population anymore. The math doesn’t work anymore.”
It’s hard to predict what American politics will look like in the next three years, let alone seven. But there is no way for Democrats to break the Republican majority in the Senate without winning North Carolina, Jackson said. Winning Senate races will help the party crack the code on winning the presidential race, he added.
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Southern states are projected to gain nine congressional seats, which would significantly alter Democrats’ Electoral College strategy. Reliably blue states like California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania are all projected to lose seats.
Of the 27 states that gained population in 2024 due to people moving within the country, North Carolina was the second highest. Within North Carolina, Charlotte in Mecklenburg County and Raleigh in Wake County are among the fastest-growing municipalities in the country. Those counties reliably vote Democrat.
North Carolina and Georgia have already played a major role in Democrats’ presidential strategies. In 2024, Joe Biden’s campaign — and then Kamala Harris’ campaign — saw the two states as central to Democrats’ bid to stay in the White House. Still, they had options. Of the 25 most likely paths to victory for Democrats in 2024, only five would remain for the 2032 election, according to an analysis in The New York Times.
The presidential election in 2028 and 2032 are on Democrats’ minds.
Ellie Dougherty, a campaign spokesperson for Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is up for reelection next year, said Ossoff’s race has implications for “2026 and beyond.”
“This race is a must-win, but it’s also a key test for how Democrats can flip the Senate seat in 2028 – critical for a Democratic Senate majority – and take back the White House,” said North Carolina Democratic Party Executive Director Kian Sadjadi in a statement.
The Democratic National Committee said it is investing $1 million per month into its state parties in hopes of “leveling the playing field in red states in regions like the American South,” said Ken Martin, the committee’s chair, in a statement. That investment is part of a “10-year strategy,” he said. “Wayne Gretzky used to say you have to skate to where the puck is going, not where it is now.”
Fred Hicks, a Democratic consultant in Georgia, also said North Carolina and Georgia must help offset population losses in the Midwest and other blue states.
He is also watching Texas and Florida. “If Florida and Texas can become competitive next year, even if Democrats don’t win, that really forces Republicans’ hands in a big way from a resource allocation perspective,” Hicks said.
Republicans, however, do not consider 2026 a bellwether. You can’t make a comparison between the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential election, said Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist from North Carolina who has advised five Senate wins.
“It’s a good talker for Democrats right now,” he said. “But is it a precursor to the actual outcome? No, it is not.”
Republicans may be doubtful that 2026 is any kind of indicator for presidential elections to come, but the national party touts the projected population shifts as a sign of momentum for 2026 and elections to follow.
“Democrats can talk up North Carolina and Georgia, but their political map is contracting while the Republican map is expanding,” said Kiersten Pels, the national press secretary at the Republican National Committee, in a statement.
It’s not that simple, Shumaker warned. Both he and Jackson compared North Carolina to Northern Virginia, which gained population to the point that it diluted the political power of more rural parts of Virginia.
The northern part of the state, home to thousands of federal workers, saw large swings in vote margins between the 2024 presidential and last month’s gubernatorial election.
“The power center in North Carolina is going to be a suburban-urban base, and Republicans have got to improve their performance with suburban-urban unaffiliated voters if they’re going to want to remain competitive into the next decade,” Shumaker said.
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