Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s sweeping changes to the federal government are driving the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee’s campaign strategy for the next two years.
A new DLCC memo shared with NOTUS lays out Democrats’ state-level targets through the 2026 midterms. The list includes 18 legislative chambers across 11 states; 10 of these chambers are in the “battleground” states of Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Alaska. And in five of these chambers, the balance of power could be decided by a single seat in either the House or Senate (the Virginia House, the Minnesota House and Senate, the Michigan Senate and the Pennsylvania House).
The plan also emphasizes redistricting in 2030.
“The states are where you’re going to see a firewall against what is happening in D.C.,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, told NOTUS. “When you dismantle our federal government, the services that are provided to people still need to come from some place.”
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Democrats suffered in battlegrounds at the top of the ticket in 2024, but several state-level candidates outperformed Kamala Harris. The DLCC is one arm of the Democratic Party that isn’t calling for a complete overhaul of its organization after the 2024 elections; it says its management of its limited budget served it well in the end, and it plans on mirroring that approach in these areas moving forward.
“We were incredibly strategic and disciplined with our resource deployment,” Williams said. “It was really important because the presidential race was spending our entire cycle’s budget like weekly on ads. We had a huge resource gap, and we had to be really effective with ours.”
Still, Democrats are lagging in support for state legislative campaigns. The DLCC is “historically underfunded,” and the gap between funding for state and federal races is growing, the memo said. Compared to the over $2 billion Democrats raised for both congressional races and the presidential race, the DLCC raised $182 million in 2024, according to the organization.
The DLCC also identified six GOP state-level majorities where Democrats see opportunities to pick up seats. They’re split across four states: Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and North Carolina. In Arizona, Republicans have just a two-seat Senate majority and a three-seat House majority. In North Carolina, Democrats have just enough seats to break a GOP supermajority and protect the governor’s veto.
Finally, the committee is also planning for increased Republican investment in some states where Democrats have control. For now, according to the memo, the only chambers on this “watchlist” are the two in the Maine state legislature, but more may be added.
The target map has been made for the next cycle, but it’s meant to get the ball rolling for the many states that will experience redistricting in 2030. The consequences won’t just reshape state legislatures; they’ll also impact the balance of the House of Representatives.
“Republicans have invested in this ballot level at a national party level for multiple decades and have completely reshaped the landscape of state legislatures and legislative power,” Williams told NOTUS. “We understand that we can’t keep doing the same things. Legislatures not only draw their own maps in many states, but will draw the congressional districts for more than 280 members of Congress.”
When Trump took office in 2017, there were 29 Democratic majorities in state legislatures across the U.S. Now, there are 39 Democrat-controlled chambers. Also, in 2017, there were six Democratic trifectas, whereas now there are 15.
And the president’s big swings in office have sparked some momentum in fundraising at the state level for Democrats. Since Trump’s first two weeks in office, the DLCC said it’s seen an 88% increase in daily email fundraising alone.
“We’re seeing donors, particularly at the grassroots level, coming to rally around state legislatures understanding that this is going to be the bulwark against the Trump presidency,” said Samantha Paisley, a DLCC spokesperson. “Making sure that’s sustainable and continues for the years ahead is another story, but for this snapshot, as we call out oligarchy and right-wing billionaires, right now, we’re seeing a bit of a surge.”
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Calen Razor is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.
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