For the first time in a month, there’s hope on Capitol Hill that the government shutdown will end — maybe even next week.
But whether that momentum is real, or wishcasting, is not yet clear. And lawmakers left town on Thursday before anyone could really find out.
“People are talking. We’re continuing to talk,” Sen. Gary Peters told NOTUS. “I express optimism because whenever you’re talking, that’s better than not.”
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s assessment was slightly more moderate.
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“There are talks about talks,” she said. When asked if there is progress being made, she added dryly: “I’ll go check.”
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy told NOTUS he can’t tell whether prospects for the end of the shutdown are actually improving.
“I certainly don’t hear any real movement from Trump on tax credits,” he said. “And ultimately, you need him.”
It’s a hedge against a growing sense of optimism on Capitol Hill. Senators on both sides of the aisle acknowledge that talks between bipartisan lawmakers are progressing. At the moment, those talks seem focused on individual appropriations bills, as opposed to the continuing resolution at hand that’s failed on the Senate floor 13 times.
It’s unlikely those appropriations bills are the outright solution to the current impasse. But after weeks of Senate Republicans and Democrats giving each other the silent treatment, any sign of conversation is seen as a step forward.
“The dialogue about how to get to (appropriations), I think that’s helping encourage practical Democrats,” Republican Sen. John Hoeven said. “And I hope they’ll join us and vote to open up the government.”
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis said people are talking, and that “it’s feeling more likely that we get a vote before Thanksgiving, but there’s still a lot of work to do.”
What’s more, the pain of the month-long shutdown is growing. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits will lapse this weekend. Federal workers are on track to miss their second full paychecks. The health care benefits Democrats have been fighting to extend will actually expire this weekend. That complicates the economic and political calculus of continuing the shutdown much longer.
Republicans have also suggested that Democrats may be willing to vote for government funding once next week’s elections in Virginia, New Jersey and New York have passed.
“I mean, they’re looking for a way out,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin said. “But they’re going to look for a way out next Tuesday after the election.”
Mullin added: “They’re not going to open up until after the New York race and the New Jersey race, and then they’ll probably open up on Wednesday or Thursday next week.”
Projections like that have been wrong numerous times over the past four weeks. At first, Republicans thought moderate Democrats would cave within a matter of days. Then, they said Democrats just needed to get through the Oct. 18 “No Kings” protests around the country. Now, elections are being cast as the holdup.
It’s entirely possible the shutdown extends beyond Election Day. Even the moderate lawmakers most eager for bipartisan compromise haven’t dropped their partisan rhetoric.
“Trump needs to listen to his former self,” Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada said of an old video of Trump saying the president deserves blame for shutdowns.
“And Thune needs to maybe take that leadership lesson from the person that he’s clearly taking orders from, and bring us together, because this is an all of us problem,” she continued. “It is a now problem.”
Despite the apparent momentum, lawmakers left town on Thursday afternoon and are set to return on Monday evening. Going home could be a liability: talks could slow, the president could post on social media, the list goes on.
For the time being, many senators were willing to hang their hats on the fact there is any progress at all.
“Hopefully next week, we’ll get this disaster behind us,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said. He added: “It’s becoming foolish and damaging, and Democrats are getting hurt more than getting helped.”
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