Speaker Mike Johnson and President Donald Trump want a second reconciliation bill before the end of this Congress, but Republican members are skeptical it can pass.
Moreover, they’re worried about what pushing through a partisan bill would do to the reelection chances of more vulnerable members.
Johnson has been leaning toward pursuing a second reconciliation bill, so much so that members spent hours on their first day back at the Kennedy Center batting around ideas of what they could do in such a bill.
Despite Johnson’s focus, his members aren’t yet sold.
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In at least one private meeting between a group of members and leadership, Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith, a chief architect of the first reconciliation bill, said a second reconciliation simply bill won’t happen, two sources told NOTUS. He added that was why he pushed for the first reconciliation bill to include as many of their priorities as possible.
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And following a protracted fight between moderates and leadership over Affordable Care Act subsidies, Rep. Mike Lawler told Johnson that “we are never getting a second reconciliation bill.”
“Take those words out of your mouth,” Johnson replied.
No matter how much Johnson wants to see another reconciliation bill through, many of his members believe it would be a pointless endeavor, pointing to their slim majority, how difficult last year’s reconciliation bill was to pass and the lack of a cohesive plan on what a second partisan package would include.
“I would absolutely love for a second reconciliation bill to pass,” Smith told NOTUS. “But I know the dynamics of this Congress. I know how difficult it was to pass the last one, and with having even a smaller majority now, there’s simply no path to pass a second one. I’d love to, but the reality is it won’t ever happen.”
At the beginning of 2025, most Republicans had in mind that a clear goal of the reconciliation bill was to make the tax cuts from Trump’s first term permanent. Now, nobody knows what would go into a new bill or what Republicans want to accomplish legislatively. Then there’s the matter of getting everyone to agree on something.
“We’re just kind of meandering from crisis to crisis with a one-seat majority, with varying degrees of attendance,” one GOP lawmaker told NOTUS. “I think you would need to decide what the actual core priorities are. Would have to be narrow in focus, and they have to be something that unifies all corners of the conference. What’s that issue?”
One senior House Republican told NOTUS, “I’m just not sure what the legislative priority is.”
“In the first one, there were tax cuts, but here, what in the world can they give us?” a second senior House Republican said.
“A lot of members have an interest in doing something. Question is, can we all come together behind the same thing?” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told NOTUS. “So, it’s still a little too early to tell.”
The Republican Study Committee, the largest ideological caucus in Congress, has tried to answer that question. For the past couple of months RSC Chair Rep. August Pfluger, has been working with Rep. Jodey Arrington, chair of the House Budget Committee, on the scope of a second reconciliation bill.
On Tuesday, the group finally released its plan: A 10-page document titled “Making the American Dream Affordable Again,” and laid out five legislative priorities with titles like “rebuild the American family” and “deliver health care freedom and lower drug prices,” as well as an ambitious goal to “codify President Trump’s sweeping executive orders.”How to make those priorities a reality, however, is more difficult.
Some of those ideas fell flat with members.
“What are they gonna do in the bill? Health care? No way,” one of the senior GOP members told NOTUS.
Skepticism about the possibility of a second reconciliation bill also grew after 17 Republicans voted with every Democrat to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies as the marquee piece of evidence that any new reconciliation bill is dead before it even begins.
“Reconciliation two is dead,” one senior GOP aide told NOTUS. “We just had 17 members vote for an $80 billion spending measure. No chance they vote for something that actually reduces spending in health care.”
“I don’t know how you do anything real when 17 members think their political careers are in jeopardy if they don’t vote for the Democrats’ top priority,” the aide added.
This sentiment was echoed by members.
“I would have said yes,” Rep. Ralph Norman said of whether a second reconciliation bill is in the cards. “Then, we had the 17 who voted with the Democrats on the discharge petition. I would hope it is, but all bets are off now, unfortunately.”
His fellow House Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Eli Crane, said, “I haven’t sensed any real appetite by the conference to push another reconciliation package,” adding that GOP members voting to extend the ACA subsidies is not a good sign.
Others applauded Pfluger for trying anyway.
“Pfluger is putting forward a plan, which is desperately needed,” one Republican member said.
Pfluger, for his part, defended the idea that a second reconciliation bill was still possible.
“We’ve worked very hard to work with member offices, many, many dozens and dozens of member offices, with stakeholders and with the White House. We got a good framework. Now, we’re gonna start the conversation. It’s time to go,” he told NOTUS.
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