Republicans in the House and Senate have adopted their respective budgets. That was the easy part.
Finding a way to turn two budgets into a single reconciliation bill — or multiple reconciliation bills, if the Senate has its way — will be much tougher.
For now, the House’s approach is the path ahead. Senate Republicans have openly said they intend to take up the House’s budget resolution, which leaves runway for tax cuts, and then make changes as senators see fit.
President Donald Trump has endorsed that plan, hoping to pass most of his legislative agenda in his “one big, beautiful bill.” But it’s all much easier said than done.
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For one, Trump has big ambitions for tax cuts. He wants to renew the individual tax cuts in the GOP’s 2017 tax overhaul while also adding policies like “no taxes on tips” and another corporate tax reduction. The problem is, the $4.5 trillion that the House approved hardly leaves enough room to simply extend current tax rates. And to get the budget through the House, GOP leaders promised the Freedom Caucus that any additional tax cuts would be accompanied by additional entitlement cuts.
Those are the very same entitlement cuts that vulnerable Republicans hardly want to see happen at all.
But the problems only start there. For another issue, Trump, like many congressional Republicans, wants to make the tax cuts in the bill permanent.
“Permanence has been something we sought for a long time,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of the proposed tax cuts. “And then you’re not having to get on this merry-go-round every few years and have a fight about reinstating tax policy.”
Senate Republicans, however — like Trump and many vulnerable House Republicans — are also resistant to large-scale Medicaid cuts, even though the House budget created much of its runway for tax cuts by effectively earmarking Medicaid for huge reductions.
House GOP leaders were only able to get the budget through the chamber by telling those members who are politically vulnerable that those Medicaid cuts won’t happen, even though they were also only able to adopt the budget because they told conservatives that those entitlement cuts were coming.
In short, for a final bill to pass, one side will have to swallow policies that leaders promised wouldn’t be part of the ultimate deal. Or both sides will have to compromise.
Senate Republicans also have to deal with the inevitable “Byrd rule,” which doesn’t allow for “extraneous” measures in a budget reconciliation process. (Essentially, if a policy doesn’t have a sizable budgetary impact, it will still take 60 votes in the Senate.)
“I’m sure whatever we’re doing, whatever would be done, would be in consultation with the House as well to see how we’ll thread the needle,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a member of Senate GOP leadership. “And I’d imagine we’re going to be doing it sooner than later.”
The House GOP’s slim majority puts pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson to stay on the same page with Thune. And the first test in that communication is timing. Johnson has repeatedly said he wants the final bill passed by the first week of April, which is more than ambitious for a House and Senate tasked with squaring very different visions for a reconciliation bill.
There are few legislative days left for the Senate to act before its March recess week, which will be the first in almost three months. Senate Republicans also haven’t had a full conference meeting since the House bill was narrowly adopted. Most will need an opportunity to litigate the blueprint amongst themselves next week. The week after that is the government funding deadline, meaning the almost inevitable need for a stopgap bill will consume most of lawmakers’ time.
Asked whether Senate Republicans would realistically have time to address reconciliation before recess, Sen. Mike Rounds said he wasn’t sure.
“Our leadership is going to ponder which is the best path forward. All we know is we’re going to get it done, and we’ll get ‘er done in time so that nobody gets a 20% tax increase,” Rounds said.
It’s not unusual for reconciliation bills to face long, drawn-out processes. Congressional Democrats spent months on their last reconciliation package, the Build Back Better Act. They also had multiple run-ins with the Senate parliamentarian, who vets whether a bill abides by the Byrd rule, among other provisions.
Still, Republicans are expressing optimism about the whole process.
One House Republican didn’t think the Byrd rule would be a huge impediment.
“We vetted that pretty well here in the House,” Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia said. “We considered that when the Budget Committee drafted it, so I don’t see the Byrd rule being a problem for us.”
As GOP lawmakers launch into a game of legislative hot potato, Trump’s input will be crucial. Ultimately, it will be Trump who has to convince Republicans to accept the reconciliation bill — compromises and all — and it will largely be Trump who sells the legislation to the public.
His first order of business will be navigating a Senate that has a dramatically different vision for a reconciliation bill than the House, and particularly House conservatives.
And, for now, Republicans are staying positive.
When asked about the prospect of the Senate changing the House’s legislation, the No. 4 House Republican, Lisa McClain, told NOTUS that she was “an optimist by nature.”
“The feedback that I’ve gotten is optimistic,” she said.
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Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz are reporters at NOTUS.
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