Congress has endured an 11-month marathon that included a fight over the so-called Epstein files, a massive reconciliation bill, a contentious rescission bill, a handful of ethics scandals and censure attempts, a near government shutdown and an actual, record-setting government shutdown.
Now, exhausted and miserable, Congress is staring down a three-week sprint to the end of 2025. And with expiring Affordable Care Act tax subsidies and another government funding deadline on the horizon, lawmakers will be limping to the finish line.
At the top of Congress’ agenda is dealing with ACA subsidies set to expire on Dec. 31. Short of legislative intervention, health care premiums will skyrocket for millions of Americans.
Members of both parties have vowed to find a fix. But a remedy that can realistically pass both chambers does not appear to be forthcoming, especially before Congress is slated to leave Washington on Dec. 19 — 13 legislative days from now.
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“It’s going to be tough,” Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi told NOTUS of a compromise solution, “just because everything’s so toxic.”
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That toxicity has intensified since Senate Democrats refused to vote for a government funding patch without some ACA subsidy extension during a 43-day government shutdown. While a few ultimately changed their minds and reopened the government without any certain ACA concessions, Democrats succeeded in amplifying their message that Republicans were making health care less affordable.
While moderate lawmakers in the House and the Senate attempt to broker a bipartisan solution, many Republicans are generally predisposed against bills that extend the ACA that aren’t paired with reform like income caps.
“Any effort to address this cliff needs to include income caps and make serious reforms to the credits, including addressing the rampant fraud and abuse in the program,” Rep. Mike Flood, who chairs the 80-plus-member, leadership-aligned Main Street Caucus, said in a statement.
Conservative lawmakers swiftly shot down a trial balloon from the White House that included a two-year extension of the subsidies, telling NOTUS they are holding out to force broader ACA reform. But more moderate members who are involved in talks, like Rep. Don Bacon, are concerned that major reform isn’t achievable before the credits expire, setting Republicans up for a major intra-party clash in the next three weeks.
“You’re not gonna get a massive reform done by Dec. 31,” Bacon said.
The policy dynamics are so fluid that some lawmakers are convinced that Congress won’t be able to come up with a fix in time.
“Will they bear fruit or not? I don’t know,” Sen. Josh Hawley said of bipartisan discussions. “I mean, I hope so. I hope we can get to something that will allow us to hold down the cost of premiums. Premiums are already too high.”
Asked where the health care fight lands, conservative Rep. Tim Burchett told NOTUS, “Wringing of hands, clutching of pearls and a strong letter to someone I’m sure.”
While lawmakers bicker over the ACA, there’s another huge policy challenge ahead: appropriations.
Last month, Congress passed three full-year spending bills: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs, Legislative Branch and Agriculture. That leaves nine appropriations bills that are set to expire on Jan. 30. If Congress does not pass those bills or extend funding at current levels, the government will partially shut down.
Before leaving for the Thanksgiving recess, Appropriations Chair Tom Cole outlined his game plan to reporters. He described a piecemeal strategy, in which Congress passes a package of three less controversial appropriations bills before leaving town for the holidays.
“We could clean out a lot of smaller stuff that’s still important,” Cole said, citing Transportation and Urban Development, Interior, and Commerce Justice and Science, which he thinks are “ready to go.”
Even passing those bills before Dec. 19 will be tricky. As Cole acknowledged, conservatives loathe being forced to vote on major spending packages at the end of December, arguing the timeline applies inappropriate pressure to vote “yes” on the legislation so their colleagues can get home for the holidays.
“There’s always, on our side, some chagrin about huge bills right before Christmas,” Cole said. “I mean, our folks don’t like being jammed that way. We don’t want to jam them that way. So I think again, bite-sized packages that would signal we’re clearly not trying to force you to vote on something.”
ACA subsidies and appropriations aren’t the only policy issues that will eat up floor time in the 13 days Congress has to work with. Both chambers will have to vote on the National Defense Authorization Act, which lawmakers are still finalizing. A bipartisan cohort of House members is also pushing for a vote before the end of the year to ban U.S. lawmakers from trading stocks.
There are also documents relating to Jeffrey Epstein. Although Congress passed a bill to force the Department of Justice to release Epstein files, the House Oversight Committee is forging ahead with its investigation of the convicted sex offender’s ties to officials. While it’s unlikely there will be further floor votes on the matter, anything the DOJ releases or Oversight dredges up could spark another unseemly and time-consuming news cycle for Republicans.
Of course, the end of 2025 isn’t actually the end of Congress’ problems. While Republicans and Democrats are eager to close out this legislative year, next year could prove even more trying.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s surprise resignation, effective Jan. 5, will shrink Speaker Mike Johnson’s narrow majority, making advancing partisan legislation with just unruly conference’s votes more difficult. Fed up with browbeatings from the Trump administration and leadership, more Republicans are anonymously floating their early retirements.
Bacon told Axios he almost quit in November over objections to the Trump administration’s plan to resolve Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Morale is low, but the Trump administration’s ambitions remain lofty. White House officials are pressing for Congress to take up another sweeping reconciliation bill, tackling one of the GOP’s most politically treacherous issues — health care.
That’s to say nothing of the midterms, where House Republicans will face harsh headwinds on the campaign trail. Democrats, emboldened by their 2025 state-level wins, will bash the GOP for cost-of-living and Medicaid cuts, hoping to recreate the magic that won them the House in 2018.
But at least Congress will get to go home for the holidays before it has to deal with all that.
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