After months of speculation, former Rep. Colin Allred launched his comeback Senate bid on Tuesday.
Despite losing to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by nearly 9 percentage points, Allred will look to reverse his fortunes against whomever Republicans put up.
“Over the coming months my campaign is going to roll out a series of plans, and the first will be an anti-corruption plan,” Allred said in a launch video. “I hope you’ll join our team because I know you’ve got some fight left in you too.”
There are multiple reasons Allred and his allies feel this time could be different for the former NFL linebacker.
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Specifically, the Senate Republican primary in Texas is messy. Multiple polls have shown incumbent Sen. John Cornyn trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton, who’s running to Cornyn’s right. Reps. Ronny Jackson and Wesley Hunt are also considering runs, two people familiar with the situation told NOTUS.
Allred announcing his bid could put Texas on the map for Democrats, who are salivating at the idea of Paxton beating Cornyn in the primary. Polls have shown Paxton losing to Allred, if the controversial Paxton can win the Republican nomination against Cornyn.
Texas has a runoff system in primaries if no candidate reaches 50% in the first round of voting. A three- or four-way race makes that possibility much more likely — and it won’t be cheap. National Republican campaign arms would surely prefer to avoid dumping money in the primary election when the general is already sure to be expensive.
A number of Republicans are publicly and privately concerned that if Paxton wins the GOP nomination, he’d fumble the general election. Although Texas has remained steadily Republican in recent elections, Democrats have been working to make inroads in the state with mixed signs of success.
Although Cruz won his 2018 reelection against then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke by just 2.8 percentage points, Cruz beat Allred by 8.6 points in 2024. Cornyn also won his last reelection in 2020 by 9.6 points.
Still, Allred’s allies argue he’d have the best chance of winning this cycle after outpacing Kamala Harris in 251 of 254 counties in the 2024 election.
Midterm elections after a change in presidential power are also historically favorable to the minority party, meaning Democrats could see a turnout boost in response to Trump and the GOP’s unified control of Washington.
Still, even with a relatively uncrowded Democratic field, Allred isn’t assured to be the Democratic nominee. Retired NASA astronaut Terry Virts launched a bid earlier this month. And while other high-profile Texas Democrats like Rep. Joaquin Castro, state Rep. James Talarico and O’Rourke all seem to be staying out of the race — those three Democrats actually met with Allred last month to sort out who could run for Senate this cycle, The Dallas Morning News reported — there’s no guarantee more Democrats won’t jump into the race.
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Ursula Perano and Daniella Diaz are reporters at NOTUS.
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